铜产业链周度报告-20251019

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market shows a neutral performance with prices ranging from 83,000 to 88,000 yuan/ton. The VIX index's rapid rise indicates increased market uncertainty. The market is cautious due to the game between supply constraints and trade concerns [3]. - Macro risks have affected investor sentiment, but they have recently eased. The raw - material supply shortage persists, potentially leading to a future copper supply gap. Global copper inventories increased this week, with a significant rise in domestic inventories. The supply - shortage logic provides long - term opportunities for long - position allocation, and attention should be paid to the development of trade frictions. The long - short spread trading position can continue to be held [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading End - Volatility: The volatility of LME and COMEX copper has increased. The COMEX copper price volatility is around 27%, and the SHFE copper volatility is about 25% [13]. - Term Spread: The term structure of SHFE copper has flattened, and the LME copper spot discount has narrowed. The COMEX copper near - end structure has changed from B to C [15][19]. - Position: The positions of SHFE and international copper have decreased, while the COMEX copper position has increased. The SHFE copper position decreased by 47,700 lots to 530,600 lots [20]. - Capital and Industry Position: The net short position of LME commercial enterprises has decreased. The net short position of LME commercial enterprises decreased from 77,500 lots on October 3rd to 76,700 lots on October 17th [26]. - Spot Premium: The domestic copper spot premium has strengthened, while the bonded - area copper premium has declined. The domestic copper spot premium rose from 20 yuan/ton on October 10th to 55 yuan/ton on October 17th, and the Yangshan Port copper premium fell from 49 dollars/ton to 37 dollars/ton [31]. - Inventory: The global total copper inventory has increased, with a notable increase in domestic social inventory. The global total inventory increased from 695,700 tons on October 9th to 718,800 tons on October 16th, and the domestic social inventory increased from 166,300 tons to 177,500 tons [34]. - Position - to - Inventory Ratio: The LME copper position - to - inventory ratio has rebounded, while the SHFE copper position - to - inventory ratio is at a historically low level [35]. Supply End - Copper Concentrate: The year - on - year import of copper concentrate has increased, and the processing fee remains weak. In September 2025, China's import of copper ore and its concentrates was 2.587 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.22%. The port inventory decreased from 509,000 tons on October 10th to 468,000 tons on October 17th [38]. - Recycled Copper: The import and domestic production of recycled copper have increased year - on - year. The recycled copper import in August was 179,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.79%, and the domestic production was 94,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.99% [39]. - Blister Copper: The import of blister copper has decreased, and the processing fee is at a low level. The blister copper import in August was 61,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.72% [48]. - Refined Copper: The domestic refined copper production and import have increased, and the import loss has narrowed. In September, the production was 1.121 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.62%. The refined copper import in August was 264,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.87% [52]. Demand End - Operating Rate: The operating rate of copper product enterprises rebounded in September. The operating rates of copper tubes and copper plates, strips, and foils rebounded in September but were at historically low levels. The operating rate of wire and cable rebounded marginally in the week of October 17th [56]. - Profit: The copper rod processing fee has increased but is at a historically low level, while the copper tube processing fee has rebounded. As of October 17th, the copper rod processing fee in the power industry in East China was 520 yuan/ton, higher than 490 yuan/ton on October 10th. The 10 - day moving average of the R410A special copper tube processing fee was 5,165 yuan/ton, higher than 5,112 yuan/ton on October 10th [60]. - Raw - Material Inventory: The raw - material inventory of wire and cable enterprises remains at a low level. The raw - material inventory of copper rod enterprises was at a neutral level in September, and that of copper tube enterprises was at a historically low level [61]. - Finished - Product Inventory: The finished - product inventory of copper rods has increased, while that of wire and cable has decreased. The finished - product inventory of copper rod enterprises was at a slightly high - level in September, and that of copper tube enterprises was at a historically low level [64]. Consumption End - Apparent Consumption: The domestic copper apparent consumption is good, and power grid investment is an important support. From January to August, the cumulative copper consumption was 10.6172 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.04%. From January to July, the apparent consumption was 10.6802 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.06%. The power grid investment from January to August was 379.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14% [71]. - Other Consumption Areas: The air - conditioner production has resumed growth, and the new - energy vehicle production is at a historically high level. The domestic air - conditioner production in August was 12.8801 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.43%. The new - energy vehicle production in September was 1.617 million units, a year - on - year increase of 23.72% [72].