能源化工胶版印刷纸周度报告-20251019

Report Title - Guotai Junan Futures' Weekly Report on Offset Printing Paper [1] Report Date - October 19, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The market supply pressure is high, with paper mills' inventories continuing to accumulate, and downstream demand from printers is weak. There are no clear signs of improvement in the fundamentals. The key lies in the transaction situation of textbook publishing tenders. It is recommended to focus on bilateral trading opportunities between 4100 - 4500 yuan/ton, and the price trend is mainly volatile, with interval operations as the main strategy [53]. Summary by Directory Industry News - As of this Thursday, the inventory days of duplex paper increased by 1.37% compared to last Thursday, and the week-on-week increase narrowed by 0.31 percentage points. The new round of publishing tenders has not yet increased in volume, downstream social demand is average, and paper mills still face inventory pressure [5]. - This week, the operating load rate of duplex paper was 48.61%, a week-on-week decrease of 1.84 percentage points, and the week-on-week decline widened by 0.72 percentage points. After the National Day, the resumption of some shutdown production lines was slightly delayed, and under the influence of continuous price declines, the operation of individual production lines decreased [5]. Market Trends - The daily average price of mainstream market 70g high-white duplex paper on October 17 was 4440 yuan/ton, the same as yesterday and last week, with a week-on-week and year-on-year change of 0 [9]. - In the spot market, the prices of various brands of 70g duplex paper in Shandong and Guangdong markets remained unchanged week-on-week. In terms of cost and profit, before tax, the pre-tax gross profit decreased by 4 yuan; after tax, the after-tax gross profit decreased by 3 yuan. In the futures market, the closing prices of OP2601 and OP2603 decreased, and the 1 - 3 spread decreased by 6 yuan. The basis in Shandong and Guangdong markets increased by 24 yuan [10]. Supply and Demand Data Industry Capacity - In 2024, the domestic duplex paper industry capacity was approximately 16.52 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7%. The annual output was approximately 9.478 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 57% [19]. Weekly Production and Operation - This week, the domestic duplex paper industry output was 166.1 thousand tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 48.6% [22]. Enterprise Weekly Sales and Inventory - This week, the domestic duplex paper industry sales volume was 161.1 thousand tons, and the weekly enterprise inventory was 369.0 thousand tons [29]. Import and Export - In August, the domestic duplex paper import volume was approximately 18.9 thousand tons, and the export volume was approximately 56.8 thousand tons [37]. Inventory Situation - In September, both social and enterprise inventories of duplex paper continued to accumulate [43]. Terminal Consumption - In recent years, the growth rate of retail sales of books, newspapers, and magazines has gradually slowed down [49]. Market Judgment - Supply: Domestically, this week's output was 166.1 thousand tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 48.6%. In August, the import volume was approximately 18.9 thousand tons, continuing the previous low import volume [53]. - Demand: Domestically, this week's sales volume was 161.1 thousand tons. In August, the export volume was approximately 56.8 thousand tons [53]. - Viewpoint: The market remained volatile around 4200 yuan/ton this week. On Friday, the market decreased with increasing positions, which was considered a capital-driven behavior. Fundamentally, there are no clear signs of improvement, and the key lies in the textbook publishing tenders. From a trading perspective, the value of short - selling is not high, and attention should be paid to bilateral trading opportunities between 4100 - 4500 yuan/ton [53]. - Valuation: Currently, the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. The expected profit of paper mills from selling for delivery cannot cover the opportunity cost in the spot market. Enterprises still have production profits, but they are close to some relatively high marginal costs, and the overall valuation is still low [53]. - Strategy: The price trend is mainly volatile, and interval operations are recommended [53].