铅产业链周度报告-20251019

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The lead market lacks obvious drivers, and prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of 16,900 - 17,500 yuan/ton. The total lead inventory in five regions has decreased, and the absolute inventory is at a historically low level for the same period [3]. - The processing fee for lead concentrate remains weak. The primary lead supply pressure is emerging, while demand shows a phased recovery. The price is expected to oscillate. On the supply side, primary lead production is under pressure, and the profit of secondary lead enterprises has recovered to a profitable level, increasing the expectation of resuming production. On the consumption side, it is gradually improving, with dealers showing good enthusiasm for receiving goods, and the finished - product inventory of battery factories remaining at a low level. In terms of unilateral trading, it is recommended to buy on dips or short volatility. In terms of spreads, the long - short position in the Shanghai lead term has decreased [5][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Trading Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, Position) - Price and Spread: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract last week was 17,075 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.38%. The LmeS - lead3 closed at 2018, with a weekly increase of 0.17%. The LME lead premium decreased by 3.63, the bonded area lead premium decreased by 2.5, the Shanghai 1 lead spot premium remained unchanged, and the secondary - primary lead spread decreased by 25 [8]. - Inventory: The Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory increased by 2014 to 32,082, the total Shanghai lead inventory increased by 1785 to 41,701, the social inventory increased by 800 to 37,700, and the LME lead inventory increased by 13,400 to 250,400 [8]. - Transaction and Position: The trading volume of the Shanghai lead main contract increased by 3334 to 39,642, and the position decreased by 4577 to 40,218. The trading volume of LmeS - lead3 decreased by 7579 to 5988, and the position increased by 6194 to 142,000 [8]. Lead Supply (Lead Concentrate, Waste Battery, Primary Lead, Secondary Lead) - Lead Concentrate: China's lead concentrate production, import volume, consumption, and other data are presented in the report. The processing fee (TC) of imported and domestic lead concentrates is also shown, and the lead concentrate processing fee remains weak. The lead concentrate production in 2025 shows a certain trend, and the inventory in Lianyungang also has corresponding changes [26][27]. - Primary and Secondary Lead: The production of primary lead and the combined production of primary and secondary lead in 2025 are presented. The weekly operating rate of primary lead and the production and operating rate of secondary lead also show corresponding trends. The profit of secondary lead smelting has recovered, and the production in many places has increased [31][32]. - Waste Battery and Secondary Lead: The raw material inventory of secondary lead smelting enterprises, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries, the cost and profit of secondary lead are presented. The profit of secondary lead smelting is maintained at around 200 yuan/ton [38][39][41]. - Import and Export: The net import of refined lead, the monthly import volume of lead ingots, the import profit and loss, and the export volume of lead ingots are presented [42]. Lead Demand (Lead - Acid Battery, Terminal) - Lead - Acid Battery: The operating rate of lead - acid batteries, the monthly finished - product inventory days of lead - acid battery enterprises and dealers, and the export volume of batteries are presented. The consumption of lead - acid batteries is gradually improving, and the finished - product inventory of battery factories remains at a low level [46]. - Terminal Consumption: The actual consumption of lead, the monthly production of automobiles and motorcycles are presented, reflecting the terminal demand for lead [48].