有色金属20251019周报：美联储降息预期再升温叠加贸易战助攻，黄金价格再创历史新高-20251019

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform" [7] Core Views - The report highlights that the recent surge in gold prices is driven by worsening international trade relations and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with a 97% probability of a 25 basis point cut in October and a 100% probability in December [2][12] - Industrial metals are experiencing mixed signals, with copper prices supported by supply disruptions and strong demand from the automotive sector, while aluminum prices are expected to remain stable due to tight supply and strong demand [2][14][17] - In the renewable metals sector, cobalt prices are rising due to tight supply and strong demand, while lithium remains a strategic investment opportunity in the electric vehicle supply chain [19][20] - Rare earth prices are under pressure, with mixed performance among other minor metals, as export controls tighten [24][47] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices have reached historical highs due to trade tensions and Fed rate cut expectations, with key stocks including Zhongjin, Zijin, and Zhaojin [2][13] - Silver prices are also on the rise, with stocks like Shengda and Huyin being highlighted [2][13] Industrial Metals - Copper is facing supply disruptions from events in Indonesia and Congo, while demand from the automotive sector remains strong, with September sales showing a 23.7% year-on-year increase [14][17] - Aluminum prices are expected to be stable due to balanced supply and demand dynamics, with key stocks including Yun Aluminum and Tianshan [18] Renewable Metals - Cobalt prices are experiencing upward pressure due to tight supply and strong demand, with potential for prices to exceed 400,000 CNY/ton [20][23] - Lithium remains a focus for strategic investment, with expectations of strong demand in the electric vehicle sector [19] Other Minor Metals - Rare earth prices are weak, with specific metals like praseodymium and neodymium seeing price declines, while dysprosium prices have increased [24][47] - The report notes the tightening of export controls on rare earths, impacting market sentiment [24][47]