美国商业地产暴雷，美元继续走弱

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "Oscillating" [6] 2. Core View of the Report - The market continues to be highly volatile in the short - term, and the US dollar index is expected to decline further. The potential liquidity inflection point may have a positive impact on risky assets [33][34] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Global Market Overview for the Week - Market risk appetite fluctuated. Global stock markets showed mixed performance, with US stocks rising and A - shares falling. Bond yields mostly declined, and the yield on US Treasuries dropped to 4.01%. The US dollar index fell 0.55% to 98.43, and most non - US currencies rebounded. Gold prices soared 5.8% to $4251 per ounce, the VIX index slightly decreased to 20.78, and the spot commodity index declined, with Brent crude oil dropping 5.5% to $60.9 per barrel [2][5][10] 3.2 Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 3.2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets showed mixed performance. Developed markets' stocks mostly rebounded, with the S&P 500 rising 1.7%. Emerging markets' stocks mostly fell, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping 1.47%. The US government shutdown, tariff risks, and domestic economic data all affected the stock market. The US stock market's volatility is expected to increase, and the domestic stock market has a correction pressure [11][12] 3.2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields mostly declined, with the 10 - year US Treasury yield falling to 4.01%. The US government shutdown, Fed Chairman Powell's speech, and concerns about the Sino - US tariff negotiation all influenced the bond market. The decline space of US Treasury yields is limited [15][17][18] 3.2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index fell 0.55% to 98.43, and most non - US currencies rebounded. Offshore RMB rose 0.26%, the euro rose 0.3%, the pound rose 0.49%, the yen rose 0.38%, the Swiss franc rose 0.79%, the real rebounded 2%, and the Australian dollar, South Korean won, and rand closed higher, while the Canadian dollar, rupee, and Thai baht closed lower [24][26] 3.2.4 Commodity Market - Spot gold soared 5.8% to $4251 per ounce, hitting a new high. Brent crude oil dropped 5.5% to $60.9 per barrel. The Sino - US trade friction and Fed Chairman Powell's speech affected the commodity market. Gold may face a short - term correction risk [27][28] 3.3 Hot - spot Tracking - The US government shutdown led to the non - release of inflation data. US local banks had a blow - up due to the negative impact of commercial real - estate non - performing assets. Fed Chairman Powell indicated that the Fed will stop shrinking its balance sheet in a few months. The short - term confrontation between China and the US has cooled down, and the market will continue to be volatile, with the US dollar index expected to decline [33][34] 3.4 Next Week's Important Event Reminders - Monday: China's Q3 GDP and the 20th - 23rd 4th Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee - Tuesday: The Fed holds a payment innovation meeting - Wednesday: UK's September CPI - Thursday: US's September existing - home sales - Friday: US's September CPI, France, Germany, the Eurozone, UK, and US's October manufacturing PMI [35]