金银续创新高,近期重视稀土和铜
Guotou Securities·2025-10-19 09:34

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperforming the Market - A" with a maintained rating [5]. Core Views - The market is currently influenced by the ongoing US-China trade tensions, leading to increased risk aversion. The focus is on the strategic attributes of rare earths and the safe-haven properties of gold. Despite potential short-term adjustments, the fundamentals for industrial metals, strategic metals, and precious metals remain positive, with a continued bullish outlook on metals such as rare earths, copper, aluminum, tin, gold, cobalt, tantalum, and uranium [1]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have reached new highs, with COMEX gold and silver closing at $4234.9 and $50.4 per ounce, reflecting increases of 6.5% and 7.3% respectively. Concerns over tariffs persist, and there has been a significant increase in global gold reserves, with a 19-ton increase reported in August 2025. The outlook for gold prices remains bullish in the medium to long term [2]. - Recommendations include stocks such as Shandong Gold, Shandong International, China National Gold, Chifeng Jilong Gold, and Hunan Gold [2]. Industrial Metals - Copper prices have shown a slight decline, with LME copper closing at $10,607 per ton, down 1.81% from the previous week. The supply side is facing challenges, with Japanese copper smelting companies indicating reduced processing fees, leading to profit declines. Demand remains strong, with copper rod and wire cable production rates increasing [3]. - The outlook for copper prices is positive due to supply constraints, despite potential impacts from tariffs and macroeconomic policies [3]. - Recommended stocks include Luoyang Molybdenum, Jincheng Mining, Western Mining, Hebei Steel Resources, Jiangxi Copper, Tongling Nonferrous Metals, and Yunnan Copper [4]. Aluminum - LME aluminum closed at $2778.5 per ton, with a slight increase of 1.2%. The overall macroeconomic environment is optimistic, supporting stable aluminum prices. However, uncertainties from tariff wars and overseas mining events could still impact prices [4]. - The demand for aluminum remains stable, with no significant changes reported in construction and industrial material needs [4]. - Suggested stocks include Shenhuo Co., Tianshan Aluminum, Zhongfu Industrial, China Hongqiao, Hongchuang Holdings, Yunnan Aluminum, and China Aluminum [4]. Tin - Tin prices have decreased slightly, with the SHFE main contract at 280,750 yuan per ton. The market sentiment is weak, but there is an expectation of price stability due to tight supply conditions [9]. - Recommended stocks include Yunnan Tin, Huaxi Silver Tin, and Xingye Nonferrous [10]. Strategic Metals - Rare earth prices have shown slight declines, but the outlook remains positive due to expected supply changes and increased demand. The market is less pessimistic about the impacts of US-China trade tensions compared to earlier in the year [10]. - Recommended stocks include China Rare Earth, Northern Rare Earth, Guangsheng Nonferrous, Shenghe Resources, Huahong Technology, Jinke Magnetics, Ningbo Yunsheng, and Zhenghai Magnetic Materials [11]. - Cobalt prices are on the rise, driven by tight supply conditions and increased demand from battery manufacturers. The market is expected to see continued price increases [11]. - Recommended stocks include Huayou Cobalt, Liqin Resources, Luoyang Molybdenum, Tengyuan Cobalt, Hanrui Cobalt, and Greeenme [12].