纯苯、苯乙烯周报-20251019

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Empty orders should be stopped for profit. The rapid decline in crude oil prices has led to a downward shift in the valuation center of chemical products, and the overall chemical valuation has stepped down. There is a need to stop losses for short positions around 6,500 yuan/ton for styrene and 5,500 yuan/ton for pure benzene in the short term, with the market mainly in a volatile pattern. In October, under the impact of overseas sanctions, some major domestic refineries are expected to reduce their loads, with an estimated monthly output loss of 2 - 4 tons of pure benzene (depending on the actual load - reduction situation). The port inventory accumulation expectations for pure benzene and styrene in October have both turned into destocking expectations. The market is mainly trading cost contradictions. Attention should be paid to stopping profit for the previously compressed BZN positions, and the upper end may weaken faster. Styrene is currently weaker than pure benzene, and the downstream 3S has clearly entered a negative feedback stage, with the downstream demand remaining unoptimistic. The short - term pattern is still volatile [3][109] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Pure Benzene Supply - Domestic production: The maintenance loss in September was 60,000 tons, and after October - November, the maintenance will gradually decrease to around 30,000 - 50,000 tons. The new device production pressure was relatively large in September, with 56,000 tons realized. New capacities of 25,000 tons and 41,000 tons will be put into operation in October and November respectively, mainly from Yulong Petrochemical, Jilin Petrochemical, Hunan Petrochemical, and Guangxi Petrochemical [3][109] - Imports: The September import volume is expected to be maintained at 400,000 - 430,000 tons. The import volume is expected to increase in the fourth quarter, with an expected import of 500,000 tons in October and high - level imports expected from November to December. The external market still has a large supply pressure [3][109] Demand - Caprolactam: CPL's operation rate is gradually recovering, and the Guangxi Hengyi Qinzhou project is about to be put into operation. The current downstream inventory of raw materials is at a neutral level [3][109] - Phenol: Jilin Petrochemical's 200,000 - ton new device will be put into operation from October to November, and Shandong Ruilin plans to start production in October. The downstream PC maintains high demand [3][109] - Aniline: Maintenance has ended one after another, and the operation rate has recovered [3][109] Market Situation - In the first half of 2025, there was a continuous decline, mainly due to pre - Spring Festival market over - speculation and over - stocking, and the unfulfilled downstream production expansion expectations in the industrial chain. In the second half of the year, domestic supply continued to increase, but the market gradually shifted to a destocking pattern. From January to May 2025, the total output of pure benzene was 8.97 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. The apparent demand for pure benzene in 2025 is expected to be 31.39 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. The year - on - year growth rates of apparent demand for pure benzene in 2023 and 2024 were +17.2% and +12% respectively [11] Styrene Supply - In September, maintenance was concentrated, with 79,000 tons mainly affected by Guangdong Petrochemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical. From October to November, there will still be an average monthly maintenance of 60,000 tons, mainly affected by Zhenhai Refining & Chemical and Satellite Petrochemical. At the same time, new production is still being put into operation. It is expected that Jilin Petrochemical and Guangxi Petrochemical will both start production in November, with an average monthly increase in output of 40,000 tons. The phased supply will gradually decline from a high level [3][109] Demand - The downstream 3S hard plastics are in a situation of high production, high inventory, and low profit during the peak season. Currently, the downstream has entered a negative feedback stage and is generally weak [3][109] Market Situation - In the first half of 2025, the global styrene output contracted. The current situation is high inventory, neutral profit, and high production [81][83] Valuation - Absolute price valuation: Based on a crude oil price of $60, the reasonable valuation of the BZ2603 contract is 5,500 yuan/ton. EB processing fees are expected to expand profits in the short term, but the space is limited, mainly in a volatile pattern [3][109] Strategy - Unilateral: Stop profit for empty orders - Inter - period: None - Inter - variety: None [3][109]