能源化工纸浆周度报告-20251019

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply: The port inventory pressure persists. Although the port inventory decreased slightly by 0.3 million tons compared to the previous period, the absolute quantity remains at a high level, and the pattern of relatively loose supply remains unchanged [96]. - Demand: The improvement signal at the downstream demand end is not obvious. The overall procurement maintains a rigid - demand rhythm, but the demand for some base papers is relatively weak. The inventory pressure of finished paper still exists, and coupled with meager industry profits, the rigid - demand procurement model drags down the pulp price [96]. - Viewpoint: Considering the price support of broad - leaf pulp and the expectation of the peak season, it is expected that the pulp will remain weakly stable in the short term. However, the pattern of "coniferous pulp under pressure and broad - leaf pulp in a stalemate" continues. The coniferous pulp is constrained by the warehouse - receipt pressure and has a weak trend; the broad - leaf pulp gets some support due to the tight supply of goods, but its upward space is limited by high inventory and weak demand. Observe whether the market sentiment and the peak - season price - increase expectation can be realized [96]. - Valuation: In terms of basis, on Friday, the basis of coniferous pulp Silver Star in Shandong was 632 yuan/ton, narrowing by 28 yuan/ton compared to last week [96]. - Strategy: 1) Unilateral: Try to go long on contracts 01 and 05 at low prices; 2) Inter - period: Observe; 3) Inter - variety: Observe [96]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - Inventory: As of October 16, 2025, the pulp inventory in Changshu Port was 49.8 million tons, a 1.6 - million - ton increase from the previous period, with a 3.3% month - on - month rise; the pulp inventory in Qingdao Port was 140.2 million tons, a 0.7 - million - ton increase from last week, with a 0.5% month - on - month rise; the pulp inventory in Gaolan Port was 4.2 million tons, a 1.2 - million - ton decrease from last week, with a 22.2% month - on - month decline. The total inventory of mainstream ports was 207.4 million tons, a 0.3 - million - ton decrease from the previous period, with a 0.1% month - on - month decline [5][6]. - Production: The Fray Bentos pulp mill in Uruguay of UPM started a planned full - scale shutdown for maintenance on October 7, local time, which lasted about two weeks, with an annual production capacity of 1.3 billion tons of broad - leaf pulp [6]. - Import: China's pulp imports in September 2025 were 295.2 million tons, a 11.3% month - on - month and 10.3% year - on - year increase, with a cumulative annual import of 2706.1 million tons and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.6% [7]. - Project: In October 2025, the 22 - billion - yuan integrated forest - pulp - paper project of Liansheng in Zhangzhou, Fujian was fully put into operation, with an annual production capacity of 3.9 billion tons [8]. 3.2 Market Data - Basis: On October 17, 2025, the basis of Silver Star was 378 yuan/ton, a 48.36% month - on - month decrease; the basis of Russian Needle was - 122 yuan/ton, a 146.56% month - on - month decrease; the difference between Silver Star and Russian Needle was 500 yuan/ton, a 6.38% month - on - month increase [15]. - Month - to - month spread: On October 17, 2025, the 01 - 03 month - to - month spread was - 28 yuan/ton, with a 0% month - on - month change; the 03 - 05 month - to - month spread was - 34 yuan/ton, a 13.33% month - on - month decrease [18]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Price: The price difference between coniferous and broad - leaf pulp continued to converge. The import profit of coniferous and broad - leaf pulp continued to decline. The price of the main pulp futures contract rebounded slightly at a low level, and the price of some imported coniferous pulp grades showed a narrow - range upward adjustment. The cost of imported broad - leaf pulp was expected to increase, and spot traders were reluctant to sell at low prices. The prices of natural pulp and chemi - mechanical pulp remained stable [24][30][32][35]. - Supply: The purchase price of wood chips by paper enterprises in East China generally increased. The price of domestic chemi - mechanical pulp decreased slightly. In August, the pulp port inventory in Europe increased month - on - month, and the inventory days of European coniferous pulp decreased month - on - month. The shipment volume of W20 coniferous pulp was at a low level with high inventory in August, while the shipment volume of broad - leaf pulp remained high with low inventory days. In July, the export volume of coniferous pulp from four countries (Canada, Finland, Chile, and the United States) increased significantly month - on - month. In August, Finland's exports decreased significantly month - on - month. In September, the export volume of Chilean coniferous pulp to China increased month - on - month. In August, the export volume of broad - leaf pulp from four countries (Brazil, India, Uruguay, and Chile) decreased month - on - month. In September, the export volume of Brazilian broad - leaf pulp to China increased significantly month - on - month. In August, China's overall pulp imports decreased [42][45][49][53][56][59][63]. - Demand: The average price of offset paper remained basically stable, with insufficient downstream consumption. The average price of coated paper decreased slightly, with weak consumption. The price of white cardboard continued to rise slightly, with increased production. The market of tissue paper was sorted out within a range, with weak downstream demand. In August, the retail sales in the terminal demand areas of pulp showed a seasonal slight recovery month - on - month, and the year - on - year growth of cultural and office supplies, daily necessities, and books, newspapers, and magazines was significant [67][71][75][79][83]. - Inventory: The futures inventory decreased. The overall port inventory was at a medium - low level within the year, showing a de - stocking trend. Qingdao Port's inventory increased slightly, and Changshu Port's inventory increased, with a slower shipment speed [86][91].