棕榈油：产地去库进程偏慢，关注下方支撑，豆油：南美产情暂好，豆系缺乏有效驱动

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The inventory reduction process in palm oil producing areas is slow, and there is a lack of strong upward drivers. It is possible that the oscillating market will continue until the end of the year. Further price movement of palm oil depends on the B50 storyline and production issues [3][5][6]. - Soybean oil lacks an independent driving force. The price of US soybean oil will mainly fluctuate with crude oil, diesel crack spreads, and South American soybean oil prices. The domestic soybean oil trend depends on South American weather, export sustainability, and the outcome of China - US trade negotiations [2][5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's View and Logic - Palm oil: The seasonal production reduction in producing areas has not arrived, and Indian buying has slowed down due to the Diwali festival. The palm oil 01 contract maintained a small - scale oscillation, with a weekly decline of 1.90%. Attention should be paid to the support level during the production - reduction season [2]. - Soybean oil: The production situation in Brazil is good. In a large - supply environment, soybean oil is difficult to have an independent driving force and mainly oscillates with the oil and fat sector. It also fluctuates with China - US economic and trade relations. The soybean oil 01 contract declined by 0.82% last week [2]. 3.2 This Week's View and Logic - Palm oil: The MPOB report confirmed the inventory pressure in Malaysia in September (over 2.3 million tons). The narrowing spread between UCO FOB and CPO FOB in Malaysia since September implies a return to normal domestic consumption. However, the impact of potential export tariffs on UCO and POME is difficult to judge as a direct negative. In Indonesia, the inventory is estimated to be between 2 - 3 million tons in the third quarter, and the annual production increase is at least 5.5 million tons. The demand in the Indian market is not optimistic, and the international demand in the fourth quarter lacks further stimulation. It is likely that the inventory in producing areas will increase to the level at the end of 2023 by the end of the year, lacking strong upward drivers [3]. - Soybean oil: The support level of the cost - effectiveness of US soybean oil in the biodiesel sector has declined, and there is a high possibility of inventory accumulation by the end of the year. The final announcement of RVO may be delayed, and the price of US soybean oil will mainly follow the fluctuations of crude oil, diesel crack spreads, and South American soybean oil prices. The overall soybean sowing progress in Brazil is favorable, and the global soybean supply pattern in 2025/2026 is large. In the domestic market, the arrival of soybeans until January has almost no gap, and the export demand may keep the domestic soybean oil inventory reduction process until March next year. Attention should be paid to the outcome of China - US trade negotiations and the sustainability of soybean oil exports [5]. 3.3 Disk Basic Market Data - Palm oil main - continuous contract: The opening price was 9,438 yuan/ton, the highest price was 9,446 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 9,260 yuan/ton, the closing price was 9,308 yuan/ton, and the decline was 1.90%. The trading volume was 2,345,011 lots, and the position decreased by 29,917 lots [8]. - Soybean oil main - continuous contract: The opening price was 8,282 yuan/ton, the highest price was 8,330 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 8,210 yuan/ton, the closing price was 8,256 yuan/ton, and the decline was 0.82%. The trading volume was 1,242,800 lots, and the position decreased by 4,334 lots [8]. 3.4 Core Data of Oil and Fat Fundamentals - Production and inventory in Malaysia: The production situation in October is still good, and it is difficult to significantly reduce the inventory in October [10]. - Inventory in Indonesia: After the third quarter, the inventory is expected to be higher than last year's level, and the price difference between Indonesia and Malaysia is declining [12]. - Export volume in Malaysia: From October 1 - 15, the palm oil export volume was 781,006 tons, a 12.3% increase compared to the same period last month [10][12].