固收周度点评：把握债市结构性行情-20251019

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The current bond market interest rates and spreads are operating at the midpoint of the range. It is recommended to avoid blindly choosing a direction and wait to enter and take profit when approaching the upper and lower limits of the range. If there are short - term trading opportunities, it is advisable to use a leverage strategy, focusing on the previously over - adjusted 7 - 10Y China Development Bank bonds and 3 - 5Y Tier 2 capital bonds while avoiding duration risk exposure. Even if there are favorable policies such as interest rate cuts or central bank bond purchases in October, the bullish trend of the bond market may be relatively limited, so caution is still needed when gambling on interest rate declines [6][45]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs This Week's Bond Market Review - The bond market showed a trend of first falling and then rising this week, centered around tariff frictions, the performance of the equity market, and risk - aversion sentiment. Ultra - long bonds performed well in the second half of the week. From Monday to Friday, the yields of 10Y and 30Y Treasury bonds fluctuated. Compared with October 10, the yields of 1Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y ChinaBond Treasury bonds on October 17 changed by + 6.9BP, - 1.5BP, - 2.1BP, and - 8.3BP respectively [1][10][11]. This Week's Bond Market Focus - 30Y Treasury Bond New - Old Bond Spread Trading: The market pre - empted the 30Y Treasury bond coupon - switching market. The spread between "25 Special 6" and "25 Special 2" compressed from 16BP to 12.9BP. Given the completion of this year's ultra - long special Treasury bond issuance plan, the probability of "25 Special 6" being re - issued is low. The spread between the new and old bonds may fluctuate around a central position of 13BP [19][20][21]. - China Development Bank Bond - Treasury Bond Spread Trading: On October 17, the spreads between 5 - 10Y China Development Bank bonds and Treasury bonds narrowed. The strong rise of China Development Bank bonds is due to the high spreads, making them cost - effective for trading, and the recovery of fund trading sentiment. The implied tax rate of China Development Bank bonds may have entered a downward range [29][30]. - Equity Market Impact on the Bond Market: The A - share market may have weak short - term upward momentum, which eases the suppression on the bond market. Factors such as the high valuation of the technology sector, the third - quarter earnings verification period, overseas bank credit risk events, and tariff policy uncertainties are suppressing the risk appetite of the equity market [4][37]. Next Week's Bond Market Concerns - Configuration Power: It may be too early for the full return of configuration power, but there are short - term marginal positive factors. The supply pressure of ultra - long bonds in the fourth quarter is expected to be lower than that in the second and third quarters, and the constraints on large banks' bond allocation may ease. The strong performance of 30Y local government bonds and railway bonds this week may reflect the bond - allocation power of insurance companies [5][38][40]. - Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee: Before the meeting, the third - quarter economic data and LPR quotes will be released, and attention should be paid to the possibility of interest rate cuts and LPR rate adjustments. After the meeting, the suggestions for formulating the 14th Five - Year Plan are expected to be released, and attention should be paid to policies to boost demand and their impact on the fundamentals and inflation expectations [5][43]. - Local Government Debt Issuance Rhythm: The issuance rhythm of the 5000 - billion - yuan local government debt balance limit this year is expected to be fast. However, the overall supply pressure of government bonds in the fourth quarter is expected to be limited. As of October 17, the remaining issuance quota of Treasury bonds and local government bonds this year is about 2.4 trillion yuan, which is lower than the net financing scale of 3.7 - 4.1 trillion yuan from 24Q3 - 25Q3 [5][44].