海外利率周报20251019：由于降息预期和信贷风险事件，美债利率继续下行-20251019

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - Due to expectations of interest rate cuts and credit risk events, US Treasury yields continued to decline, with short - and medium - term yields falling more significantly, and the yield curve steepening, reflecting strengthened market expectations of near - term interest rate cuts and concerns about liquidity risks [2][10]. - The overall economic fundamentals are comparable to those in early September, with employment pressure likely stronger than price pressure. There are no strong signs of general inflation, and the signal of employment pressure is more prominent. The market's probability of predicting a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in October has further increased to 98.98% [3][11][12]. Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Overseas Macroeconomic Interest Rate Review 1.1 Macroeconomic Indicator Review - The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index showed that manufacturing activity slowed in October, reaching its lowest level since April. The index was - 12.8, far lower than the forecast of 8.6 and the previous value of 23.2. The shipment index dropped sharply from 26.1 to 6.0, while the price pressure increased again. However, the new orders index rebounded from 12.4 to 18.2, indicating that the current weakness in manufacturing is likely due to temporary disruptions in production and shipping rather than a systematic weakening of demand [1][9]. - As of the week ending October 10, US EIA crude oil inventories increased by 3.524 million barrels, significantly higher than the market expectation of 300,000 barrels. Refinery maintenance led to a significant decline in the operating rate, reduced processing activities, and passive inventory accumulation. After the EIA report was released, oil prices fell again [1][9]. 1.2 Main Overseas Market Interest Rate Review - US: From October 10 to October 17, 2025, US Treasury yields declined, with short - and medium - term yields falling by 5 - 6bp and long - term yields falling relatively moderately by 2 - 3bp. Two US regional banks disclosed suspected loan fraud problems, which, along with government shutdown and trade friction concerns, led to an influx of funds into the bond market, pushing yields down [2][10]. - Europe and Japan: Japanese government bond yields declined slightly, and German government bond yields declined overall. Japanese government bond yields were affected by the decline in US Treasury yields and strong demand in Japanese government bond auctions. German 10 - year government bond yields reached a new low since June 25 [15]. 2. Other Major Asset Reviews Equity - Russia and South Korea led the gains, while European financial stocks faced pressure and corrected. Russia's MOEX index rose 5.10%, South Korea's Composite Index rose 3.83%, and the US Nasdaq Composite Index rose 2.14%. European bank stocks were affected by the spill - over risk of US regional banks, and the Chinese A - share and Hong Kong stock markets were under pressure due to Sino - US relations and other factors [16]. Commodities - Precious metals led the gains, while energy and cryptocurrencies were under pressure. London gold rose 6.30% and London silver rose 6.58%. Brent crude oil fell 2.30%, and Bitcoin fell 5.70% [17]. Foreign Exchange - Major non - US currencies generally strengthened, while the RMB weakened slightly. The Swiss franc rose 2.14%, and the US dollar was slightly weak due to trade tensions and market expectations of interest rate cuts [18][19]. 3. Market Tracking - The report provides multiple charts, including the US Treasury auction panel, FED WATCH's latest target interest rate expectations, and trends of major global economic indicators such as stock indices, bond yields, and commodity prices, to track market changes [13][14][24]