国泰君安期货锡周报-20251019

Report Industry Investment Rating - The strength - weakness analysis of tin is neutral, and the price range is 270,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the tin price decreased by 3%. Recently, the tin price rose above 290,000 due to the Indonesian event and macro - sentiment, but fell again this week. The domestic and foreign inventories moved in opposite directions: domestic social inventory decreased with the shutdown and maintenance in Yunnan, while LME inventory increased again as the proportion of cancelled warrants dropped significantly. Overseas spot premiums also declined sharply, and the operating rates in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces in China rose above 50%, with smelters resuming production after maintenance. Tin prices are under pressure recently. Domestic fundamentals have loosened, and overseas risk - appetite has been affected by government shutdowns and bank failures, which may slow down the AI narrative. Continued attention should be paid to the impact of Indonesia and Myanmar on the supply side [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Transaction (Price, Spread, Inventory, Fund, Transaction Volume, Position) 3.1.1 Spot - This week, the LME 0 - 3 discount was $142/ton, and the domestic spot premium was 300 yuan/ton [10] - Overseas premiums declined, and premiums in Baltimore and Taiwan narrowed [15] 3.1.2 Spread - This week, the tin monthly structure changed from the previous B structure to the C structure [19] 3.1.3 Inventory - This week, the domestic social inventory decreased by 769 tons, and the futures inventory decreased by 93 tons [22] - This week, the LME inventory increased by 325 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants dropped to 8.41% [24] 3.1.4 Fund - As of this Friday, the settled funds of Shanghai tin were 1,825.9063 million yuan, and the fund flow in the past 10 days was in the inflow direction [26] 3.1.5 Transaction Volume and Position - This week, the trading volume and position of Shanghai tin decreased slightly, while the position volume increased slightly [27] - This week, the trading volume of LME tin decreased slightly, and the position continued to decline [33] 3.1.6 Position - Inventory Ratio - This week, the position - inventory ratio of Shanghai tin increased slightly [37] 3.2 Tin Supply (Tin Ore, Refined Tin) 3.2.1 Tin Ore - In July 2025, the tin concentrate output was 6,409 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.63%. In August 2025, 10,267 tons were imported, a year - on - year increase of 16.34%, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 28.61% [41] - This week, the processing fee for 40% tin ore in Yunnan remained at 12,000 yuan/ton, while the processing fee for 60% tin ore in Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Hunan decreased to 8,000 yuan/ton. The import profit - loss level of tin ore increased slightly [42] 3.2.2 Smelting - In August 2025, the domestic tin ingot output was 15,390 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.09% [44] - This week, the combined operating rate of Jiangxi and Yunnan provinces increased significantly to 50.35% [46] 3.2.3 Import - In August 2025, 1,296 tons of domestic tin ingots were imported, 1,640 tons were exported, resulting in a net export of 344 tons. Among them, 501 tons of tin ingots were imported from Indonesia to China. The latest import profit - loss was - 15,038 yuan/ton [50] 3.3 Tin Demand (Tin Products, End - Users) 3.3.1 Consumption - In August 2025, the apparent consumption of tin ingots was 15,046 tons, and the actual consumption was 15,843 tons [54] 3.3.2 Tin Products - This week, the downstream processing fee decreased slightly. The operating rate of monthly solder enterprises increased in August, reaching 73.2%. The production and sales of major tin - plated sheet enterprises decreased slightly in July [56] 3.3.3 End - User Consumption - In August 2025, the output of end - user products varied. The output of integrated circuits decreased in August, while the monthly output of electronics and smartphones increased. In the home appliance sector, the output of air conditioners decreased, while the output of color TVs and washing machines increased slightly [58] - In August 2025, the consumption of home appliances and new energy decreased month - on - month [60] - This week, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index increased, which was in line with the performance of tin prices [63]