赎回费隐忧下，二永跌出价值了吗？：固定收益专题研究

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The adjustment of Tier 2 and Perpetual (Two - Yong) bonds may not be over, and they still face risks of callback and repricing. However, they still have certain cost - effectiveness, especially 5 - year high - rating varieties [5][6]. - In the fourth quarter, the bond market is likely to fluctuate and decline, and there are still concerns about the decline in spreads. It is difficult to reproduce the unilateral downward trend in April [5]. - After the official release of the new public offering sales regulations, the spread center of Two - Yong bonds and their yield may rise slightly [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Two - Yong Bonds' Cost - Effectiveness is Prominent - In September, affected by market risk appetite and rising interest rates, the bond market continued to adjust. After the China Securities Regulatory Commission solicited opinions on the new public offering sales regulations on September 5, the bond market faced redemption pressure. Two - Yong bonds, as heavily - held by public funds, had significant declines, and the yields of 5Y and above Two - Yong bonds reached new highs for the year [5][12]. - In October, the stock market pulled back, the 10Y Treasury bond interest rate declined slightly, and the yields of urban investment bonds and Two - Yong bonds decreased. The Two - Yong bonds with larger previous declines had more obvious recoveries. As of now, the yields and credit spreads of 5Y credit assets are still at relatively high historical percentile levels for the year, and the decline may be limited [5][14]. 3.2 What to Focus on in Two - Yong Bonds - From a macro - fundamental perspective, Sino - US games and a weak economy support the bond market. However, the stock market rebound in October and concerns about the new public offering sales regulations still pose concerns about the decline in yields of quasi - interest - rate varieties [20]. - In terms of supply structure, the redemption of Two - Yong bonds reached a new high in September, the net financing gap widened, and banks faced capital replenishment pressure. In the fourth quarter, the supply of Two - Yong bonds may not be weak due to "redeeming old and issuing new" [5][23]. - From the perspective of institutional behavior, the spread trend of Two - Yong bonds is more related to the net purchases of funds, wealth management products, and securities firms. Currently, the liquidity of Two - Yong bonds is okay, but the buying power of funds is not strong. The impact of the official release of the new public offering sales regulations remains to be observed [27]. - Historically, the bond market in the fourth quarter is likely to show a pattern of fluctuating recovery, and it mostly moves sideways in October. Currently, the trading volume and turnover rate of Two - Yong bonds have rebounded, and the decline space is limited. Attention can be paid to the effect of the interest - rate amplifier of Two - Yong bonds on increasing returns when interest rates decline [47]. 3.3 Which Two - Yong Bonds Still Have Cost - Effectiveness - From the perspective of asset comparison, except for 3Y - AA+ Tier 2 capital bonds, the historical percentiles of the yields of other Two - Yong bonds are higher than those of other varieties with the same maturity, still having certain cost - effectiveness. The yields of 3Y implied AAA - and AA+ perpetual bonds are higher than those of medium - short - term notes and Tier 2 capital bonds of the same maturity, at 76% and 18% historical percentile levels for the year respectively. The yields of 5 - year Tier 2 capital bonds and perpetual bonds are higher than those of other credit assets, and the yields are all at more than 16% historical percentile levels for the year [53]. - From the perspective of credit spreads, high - implied - rating Two - Yong bonds have relatively higher cost - effectiveness, especially 5Y Tier 2 capital bonds. The 3Y implied AAA - perpetual bonds have relatively large spread compression space compared with Tier 2 capital bonds of the same rating and maturity, at the 50% historical percentile level for the year. The spreads of 5 - year high - implied - rating Two - Yong bonds compared with general credit bonds are more sufficient, and the 5Y implied AAA - perpetual bonds are worthy of attention, with a credit spread of 66bp, at the 59% historical percentile level for the year [58].