Guohai Securities·2025-10-19 11:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The trend of inventory reduction continues, driven by increased demand, and the aluminum price is expected to show stronger performance as inventory decreases [11] - The aluminum industry is anticipated to maintain high prosperity due to limited long-term supply growth and ongoing demand growth points [11] Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of October 17, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was $2,778.5 per ton, a week-on-week increase of $32.5 per ton, and a year-on-year increase of $191.0 per ton [24] - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price was 20,910.0 yuan per ton, a week-on-week decrease of 70.0 yuan per ton, and a year-on-year increase of 320.0 yuan per ton [24] 2. Production - In September 2025, the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.615 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 118,000 tons, and a year-on-year decrease of 74,000 tons [56] - The alumina production in September 2025 was 7.604 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 135,000 tons, but a year-on-year increase of 38.3 million tons [56] 3. Inventory - As of October 16, the domestic mainstream consumption area electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory recorded 627,000 tons, a week-on-week reduction of 22,000 tons, indicating a potential return to the inventory reduction trend [7] 4. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - Key companies include China Hongqiao, Tianshan Aluminum, Shenhuo Co., China Aluminum, and Yun Aluminum, all rated as "Buy" [5]