固定收益周报：期限利差如期收窄-20251019

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall outlook for China in 2025 is that the real GDP growth rate of the asset side will run smoothly, fluctuating narrowly between 4 - 5%. The liability side will see the debt growth rate of the real - sector decline and approach the nominal economic growth rate. The monetary policy will coordinate with the fiscal policy, maintaining an overall neutral and oscillating stance [21]. - The stock - bond performance shows that the risk preference has declined, funds tend to flow into long - term bonds and value - style equities. The equity style is dominated by value, and the stock - bond ratio favors bonds. The long - term bond yield has decreased, and the short - term bond yield has increased [6][22]. - In the contraction cycle, the stock - bond ratio favors equities to a limited extent, and the value style is more likely to be dominant. A + H dividend portfolios and A - share portfolios are recommended, mainly concentrated in industries such as banking, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation [10][25]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 National Balance Sheet Analysis - Liability Side: In September 2025, the debt growth rate of the real sector was 8.9%, in line with expectations. It is expected to drop to around 8.7% in October, and further to around 8.5% by the end of the year. The financial sector's capital is still tight, and risk preference has declined, with funds flowing into long - term bonds and value - style equities [1][17]. - Fiscal Policy: Last week, the net reduction of government bonds was 238 billion yuan, higher than the planned 69.1 billion yuan. Next week, the net increase of government bonds is planned to be 133.3 billion yuan. The government debt growth rate in September 2025 was 14.5%, expected to drop to around 13.6% in October and around 13.0% by the end of the year [2][18]. - Monetary Policy: Last week, the average weekly trading volume of funds increased, the price decreased, and the term spread narrowed significantly. The one - year Treasury yield rose to 1.44% at the weekend, and its lower limit is estimated to be around 1.3%. The term spread between the ten - year and one - year Treasury bonds narrowed to 38 basis points. The future yield fluctuation ranges of the ten - year and thirty - year Treasury bonds are estimated to be around 1.6% - 1.9% and 1.8% - 2.3% respectively [3][19]. - Asset Side: The physical volume data in August continued to weaken compared to July. The annual real economic growth target for 2025 is around 5%, and the nominal economic growth target is around 4.9%. It remains to be seen whether 5% will become the central target for China's nominal economic growth in the next 1 - 2 years [5][20]. 3.2 Stock - Bond Ratio and Stock - Bond Style - Overall Outlook: In 2025, China's asset side real GDP growth will be stable, and the liability side's real - sector debt growth rate will decline. The stock - bond ratio favors bonds, and the equity style is dominated by value. The recommended allocation is 60% for the Shanghai Composite 50 Index, 20% for the CSI 1000 Index, and 20% for the 30 - year Treasury Bond ETF [21][25]. - Market Performance: Last week, the risk preference declined, funds flowed into long - term bonds and value - style equities. The ten - year Treasury yield decreased by 2 basis points to 1.82%, the one - year Treasury yield increased by 7 basis points to 1.44%, and the 30 - year Treasury yield decreased by 8 basis points to 2.20%. The broad - based rotation strategy outperformed the CSI 300 Index by 1.51 percentage points last week [6][22]. 3.3 Industry Recommendation - Industry Performance Review: This week, the A - share market declined with shrinking trading volume. Among the Shenwan primary industries, banking, coal, food and beverage, transportation, and textile and apparel had the largest increases, while electronics, media, automobiles, communications, and machinery had the largest declines [30]. - Industry Crowding and Trading Volume: As of October 17, the top five crowded industries were electronics, power equipment, non - ferrous metals, computers, and machinery. The industries with the largest increase in crowding this week were pharmaceutical biology, transportation, coal, banking, and commercial retail. The overall average daily trading volume of A - shares decreased this week. Industries such as steel, coal, transportation, banking, and beauty care had the highest year - on - year trading volume growth [33][34]. - Industry Valuation and Earnings: Among the Shenwan primary industries this week, banking, coal, food and beverage, transportation, and textile and apparel had the largest increases in PE (TTM), while electronics, media, communications, basic chemicals, and machinery had the smallest increases. Industries with high 2024 full - year earnings forecasts and relatively low current valuations compared to history include banking, insurance, petroleum and petrochemicals, transportation, traditional Chinese medicine, pharmaceutical biology, beauty care, and consumer electronics [38][39]. - Industry Prosperity: Externally, the global manufacturing PMI declined in September, the CCFI index decreased, and the port cargo throughput declined. South Korea's export growth rate decreased in early October. Domestically, the second - hand housing price decreased last week, and the quantity indicators showed mixed trends. The highway truck traffic volume increased, the ten - industry fitted capacity utilization rate declined from September to October, the automobile trading volume was at a relatively high level in the same period of history, the new - housing trading volume was at a historical low, and the second - hand housing trading volume declined seasonally [43]. - Public Offering Market Review: In the second week of October (October 13 - 17), most active public - offering equity funds underperformed the CSI 300. As of October 17, the net asset value of active public - offering equity funds was 4.04 trillion yuan, slightly higher than 3.66 trillion yuan in Q4 2024 [59]. - Industry Recommendation: In the contraction cycle, the stock - bond ratio favors equities to a limited extent, and the value style is more likely to be dominant. Recommended A + H dividend portfolios and A - share portfolios mainly include 20 stocks each, concentrated in industries such as banking, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation [10][63].