A股策略周报：关注四中全会政策指引-20251019

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of the Fourth Plenary Session's policy guidance, suggesting that market fluctuations in the short term do not alter the mid-term upward trend [2] - It highlights the structural differentiation in domestic economic data, with better-than-expected export growth of 8.3% in September, while credit growth is slowing [2][3] - The report suggests focusing on three main investment themes: technology growth sectors, industries benefiting from policy support, and consumer sectors with low valuations [2] Recent Developments - Trade Data: September exports increased by 8.3%, with significant growth in exports to Africa, Latin America, and the EU, particularly in integrated circuits and ships [3] - Financial Data: New social financing in September was 3.53 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.7%, indicating a slowdown in credit growth [4] - Price Data: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in September showed a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.3% [5] Policy Tracking - Recent policy adjustments include the expansion of the Hainan duty-free shopping policy, allowing new categories of goods and adjusting the age limit for duty-free shopping [6] - The government is focusing on enhancing domestic demand and stabilizing foreign trade and investment through various measures [6] Market Performance - The A-share market experienced fluctuations, with the banking and coal sectors leading gains, while the overall market saw a decline in major indices [12][13] - The report notes that the market's short-term volatility is influenced by external uncertainties, particularly related to U.S. government shutdowns and U.S.-China relations [2][12]