国泰君安期货研究周报：绿色金融与新能源-20251019

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Nickel is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations in the short - term, with contradictions still accumulating. Stainless steel has no obvious upward drive in the supply - demand situation, but cost limits the downside space. Industrial silicon's supply - demand is expected to weaken, and for polysilicon, the policy logic remains, with attention on the implementation node. Lithium carbonate is expected to run strongly due to the significant reduction of futures warehouse receipts [2][5][6][29][34][35][67][69]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel Fundamentals: The contradiction between smelting - end inventory accumulation and the Indonesian nickel ore logic is intense. Refined nickel has marginal supply increase and weak demand, but the substitution of nickel - iron for nickel - plate in the alloy end and the uncertainty of Indonesian nickel ore policies affect the price. The short - term price has support at the bottom while inventory is accumulating at a high level [5]. - Stainless Steel Fundamentals: In the long - term, the stainless - steel industry may shift from a supply - strong and demand - weak logic to a supply - demand double - weak thinking. In the short - term, there is a lack of upward drive in the fundamentals, but cost limits the downside space. The 10 - month production schedule shows a marginal increase, and the cumulative surplus has converged compared to previous years [6]. - Inventory Tracking: On October 17, China's refined nickel social inventory increased, LME nickel inventory also increased. For stainless steel, the upstream inventory is high, and the downstream is cautious in purchasing [9]. - Market News: There are events such as Indonesia's sanctions on mining companies, changes in RKAB policies, and potential tariff increases by the US, which all have an impact on the market [10][11][12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Price Trends: This week, the industrial silicon futures price was weakly volatile, and the spot price declined. The polysilicon futures price was strongly volatile, and the spot price was stable [29]. - Supply - Demand Fundamentals: For industrial silicon, the supply is expected to increase in October, and the southwest region may reduce production in the future. The demand from downstream sectors has different trends, and overall, the industry inventory is accumulating. For polysilicon, the supply is expected to increase in October and then decrease, and the demand from the silicon - wafer end is expected to be strong in October and may change later. The 10 - month supply - demand will accumulate inventory, and the inventory accumulation will slow down from November to December [30][31][34][35]. - Trading Suggestions: For industrial silicon, it is recommended to short at high prices, with the expected next - week futures price range of 8200 - 8700 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, it is recommended to buy on dips, with the expected next - week futures price range of 51000 - 54000 yuan/ton [35]. Lithium Carbonate - Price Trends: This week, the lithium carbonate futures price strengthened, while the spot price declined slightly. The basis and the spread between different contracts also changed [67]. - Supply - Demand Fundamentals: The futures warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate decreased significantly, indicating strong demand in the spot market. The production reached a new high, and the demand is expected to be optimistic until November, but the US tariff policy on Chinese energy storage needs attention [68]. - Trading Suggestions: It is recommended to be bullish but not chase the price in the single - side trading. For inter - period trading, positive spreads are recommended. For hedging, option hedging is suggested [69].