短纤、瓶片周度报告-20251019

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the document regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Short - fiber: Short - term range - bound, medium - term bearish. Currently, it is in a weak and volatile state, but the downside space is limited. There are uncertainties in Sino - US trade negotiations, and the polyester industry's profit situation is good during the decline, with downstream profit repair. There is support from demand and spot transactions at the bottom [3][8]. - Bottle chips: Weak and volatile, but the downside space is limited. In the fourth quarter, the factory's operating rate is expected to remain around 80%. There are uncertainties in Sino - US trade negotiations, and the polyester industry's profit situation is good during the decline, with downstream profit repair. There is support from demand and spot transactions at the bottom. However, there is a risk of inventory accumulation from October to November [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Short - fiber (PF) Supply - The average operating rate of short - fiber factories is 94.3%, and the operating rate of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber for spinning remains at 94.5%. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 93% - 95% and may gradually decline slightly from October to November due to downstream pressure [8]. Demand - There is a lot of low - level restocking in the spot market, and short - fiber inventory continues to decline. The 1.4D equity inventory is 5 days, and the physical inventory is 15.8 days. The profits of downstream sectors have mostly recovered, and there is room for price - cut promotions. The yarn operating rate remains stable, and the physical inventory has decreased slightly. The terminal knitting is better than weaving, showing a structural peak season. After the national cooling, the demand for winter fabrics has improved [8]. Valuation - The current spot premium is 1000 - 1100 yuan/ton, which is neutral. The futures processing fee is 1000 yuan/ton. The processing fee and inter - month spread valuations are basically reasonable, and the basis is high [8]. Strategy - Unilateral: Gradually observe and take profit on short positions. - Inter - period: Hold long spreads. - Inter - variety: None [8]. 2. Bottle chips (PR) Supply - In the fourth quarter, the factory's operating rate is expected to remain around 80%. This week, it has slightly increased to 82%. On the one hand, the processing fee has recovered, and on the other hand, it is the off - season for demand. Subsequently, it is expected to maintain production cuts and industry self - discipline. The Fuhai project's commissioning has been postponed again, and factories may slightly reduce their loads starting from November [9]. Demand - The price continues to decline, and low - price purchases are still active. The inventory of bottle - chip factories has decreased to about 17 days. From October to November, demand decreases month - on - month. The operating rate of beverage factories has decreased to about 80%, and the operating rates of edible oil and sheet material factories have also decreased. Sea freight has declined, and the export volume in subsequent months is expected to be in the range of 50 - 550,000 tons from October to November [9]. Valuation - The spot processing fee is 500 - 550 yuan/ton, which is high. The processing fees for the November and December futures contracts are 450 - 500 yuan/ton, which are high, but it may be difficult to compress them due to weak raw material prices [9]. Strategy - Unilateral: Gradually observe and take profit on short positions. - Inter - period: Hold long spreads. - Inter - variety: Go long on TA and short on PR for the November and December contracts (enter when the processing fee is around 480 - 500) [9]. Cost and Profit - The polymerization cost has dropped to about 5100 yuan/ton. The raw materials are weak, and the bottle - chip processing fee is oscillating at a high level. The export profit has also recovered, about 830 - 850 yuan/ton [41]. Inventory - The overall PTA inventory of polyester factories has increased. The inventory of domestic polyester bottle - chip factories has decreased to around 17 days. It is expected to accumulate inventory from October to November [45]. Device Changes - Most factories maintain a 20% production cut. The 1.1 million - ton bottle - chip device of China Resources Zhuhai was shut down briefly due to a typhoon and has gradually restarted. A 600,000 - ton polyester bottle - chip device in China Resources Jiangyin was shut down in mid - September. The remaining 750,000 - ton device in Yisheng Hainan remains shut down. The 300,000 - ton new device of Fuhai is expected to be commissioned around the end of October [51]. Demand - The operating rate of downstream industries has declined. The beverage industry, sheet material industry, and edible oil industry all show a decline in operating rates. However, there are new production lines being put into operation in the beverage industry, and the demand for edible oil remains neutral. The penetration rate of ready - to - drink beverages in the sinking market is increasing, which drives the demand for sheet materials. The take - away war has increased the demand for sheet materials, and the demand from supermarkets has recovered [54][61][67]. Global Trade Flow - Overseas bottle - chip production capacity has increased little in recent years. The downstream demand overseas will increasingly rely on imports. China's bottle - chip exports mainly flow to Southeast Asia, South Asia, Central Asia, Russia, Eastern Europe, South Korea, Mexico, the Middle East, Africa, and South America [73]. Export Situation - From January to August 2025, the total export volume of domestic polyester bottle chips and slices was 5.195 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.1%. Traditional important export destinations have maintained good growth, and the exports to Indonesia, Vietnam, and South Korea have increased significantly month - on - month [80]. Anti - Dumping Policy - Many countries have implemented anti - dumping policies on Chinese bottle chips, including the United States, Brazil, Japan, the European Union, South Korea, Mexico, India, and Malaysia [91]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From October to November, inventory will accumulate, but the amplitude is not high. The supply - side assumption is that mainstream factories will maintain production cuts, Sanfang will slightly increase production, and Fuhai will commission a 300,000 - ton device at the end of October (production will be realized starting from November). The demand assumption is that downstream demand will increase by 5% year - on - year compared with the peak season of last year, and the export demand will be around 600,000 tons in subsequent months [92][93].