美豆周度报告-20251019

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The overall view is that due to the expected high - yield in South America, there is no basis for a bull market; however, cost support reduces the probability of a significant decline. The market is expected to be generally oscillating with an upward bias, within the range of 950 - 1150 cents per bushel [5]. - Negative factors include the deterioration of Sino - US relations pressuring US soybean exports, the return of the rainy season in Brazil improving precipitation and accelerating the sowing progress, and the expected increase in Brazil's planting area in the 2025/26 season [5]. - Positive factors are the possible intensification of biodiesel policies supporting prices, the expectation of improved Sino - US relations, and the possible reduction of South American soybean production due to La Nina weather [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Price - This week, the price of US soybeans oscillated and closed higher. The market started to trade on the meeting between the two heads of state during the APEC at the end of the month, and the return of the rainy season in Brazil is expected to speed up the planting progress. Next week, attention should be paid to the follow - up progress of Sino - US relations, the weather conditions in South American main producing areas, and the progress of biodiesel policies [7]. - This week, the price of US soybean meal oscillated and closed higher, mainly in an oscillating pattern [10][12]. - This week, the price of US soybean oil oscillated, with no obvious driving factors for both bulls and bears, and the current core contradiction has shifted to macro - expectations [13]. - Since September 19, the USDA has suspended data updates [15][17][19]. - On October 17, the spot price of soybeans in Mato Grosso, Brazil, rose to 119.19 reais per bag, and the spot price at Brazilian ports rose to 138.17 reais per bag [21][23]. 3.2 Supply Factors - The drought situation in US soybean - producing areas has not improved, with a drought rate of 68%, the same as last week [26]. - In the next two weeks, the temperature in US producing areas will be warmer, with no threat of early frost, and precipitation in the Great Lakes region will be higher than normal [28][30]. - The rainy season in Brazil has returned, improving precipitation conditions, but precipitation in the central and northern regions is slightly less than normal [32]. - Precipitation in Argentine soybean - producing areas is basically normal, and the sowing work is about to start [34]. - As of the week of September 26, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 62%, up from 61% last week but lower than 64% in the same period last year [36]. 3.3 Demand Factors - As of October 10, the US soybean crushing profit was 2.72 dollars per bushel, down from 2.82 dollars last week [40]. - The weekly export volume of US soybeans was 512,300 tons, down from 837,100 tons last week; the weekly export inspection and quarantine volume was 484,100 tons, down from 804,300 tons last week; the net sales volume this year was 724,400 tons, down from 923,000 tons last week; the sales volume for the next year was 0 tons, down from 220,000 tons last week; and the quantity shipped to China last week was 0 tons [42][44][46][48][50]. 3.4 Other Factors - The latest value of the ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) is - 0.943, indicating that it has entered the La Nina range [53]. - The soybean planting costs in Brazil and the US have decreased [55][57]. - As of September 23, the net short position of soybeans in CFTC was 18,200 lots, up from 14,400 lots last week; the net long position of soybean oil was 8,040 lots, down from 35,000 lots last week; and the net short position of soybean meal was 82,700 lots, up from 59,400 lots last week [61][63][65].