铝&氧化铝产业链周度报告-20251019

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The aluminum market is still testing the 21,000 mark. There are concerns about the escalation of Sino-US trade frictions, but the risk appetite in the traditional non-ferrous market remains strong. Aluminum is relatively neglected, and its price shows a convergent trend. In the short term, it is necessary to observe the development of Sino-US tariff issues. In the long term, there is a bullish outlook on aluminum's unilateral price, volatility, and smelting profit [3]. - For alumina, it is necessary to focus on whether the bottom has been found below 2,800. The spot market remains weak in the short term, but it has entered the test of cost valuation support. The downward space depends on the marginal surplus of the supply side [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Trading End - Term Spread: This week, the A00 spot premium strengthened, with the average SMM A00 aluminum premium changing from -50 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton, and the average SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) premium changing from -115 yuan/ton to -105 yuan/ton. The alumina spot premium also strengthened, with the Shandong alumina premium to the current month changing from 23 yuan/ton to 39 yuan/ton, and the Henan alumina premium to the current month changing from 93 yuan/ton to 94 yuan/ton [9]. - Monthly Spread: The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract of Shanghai aluminum narrowed. The spread changed from -20 yuan to -25 yuan, and the spread percentage changed from -0.10% to -0.12% [10]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The open interest of the Shanghai aluminum main contract increased slightly, while the trading volume decreased slightly. The open interest of the alumina main contract increased slightly and is at a historical high, while the trading volume decreased slightly [13]. - Open Interest - Inventory Ratio: The open interest - inventory ratio of Shanghai aluminum decreased, and the open interest - inventory ratio of alumina continued to decline and is at a historical low [18]. 3.2 Inventory - Bauxite: As of October 17, the port inventory of imported bauxite increased by 653,000 tons compared with last week, and the port inventory days remained basically the same. As of September, the port inventory and inventory days of Chinese bauxite continued to increase. In September, the inventory of 43 sample enterprises' bauxite increased by 420,000 tons, and the inventory days in alumina plants also increased. As of October 17, the port shipping volume and sea - floating inventory of Guinea bauxite decreased, while the port shipping volume of Australian bauxite increased slightly, and the sea - floating inventory decreased slightly. As of October 10, the outbound volume and arrival volume of bauxite decreased [23][28][29]. - Alumina: This week, the total alumina inventory continued to increase, with an increase of 63,000 tons compared with last week. As of October 16, the national alumina inventory was 4.017 million tons, an increase of 115,000 tons compared with last week [44][51]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: As of October 16, the social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 19,000 tons to 615,000 tons, showing a destocking trend [52]. - Processed Materials: This week, the spot inventory and in - plant inventory of aluminum rods decreased. As of September, the finished - product inventory ratio of SMM aluminum profiles and aluminum strips and foils decreased slightly, while the raw - material inventory ratio increased slightly [56][59]. 3.3 Production - Bauxite: The domestic bauxite supply is mainly stable. In September, the domestic bauxite production decreased slightly. Imported bauxite is an important factor driving the growth of the total domestic bauxite supply. In September, the bauxite production in Shanxi, Henan, and Guangxi showed different trends [62][65]. - Alumina: The alumina capacity utilization rate remained basically stable. As of October 17, the total operating capacity of national alumina was 96.8 million tons, a decrease of 1.4 million tons compared with the previous week. This week, the domestic metallurgical - grade alumina production was 1.861 million tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons compared with last week [69]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: As of September, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained at a high level, and the capacity utilization rate remained high due to profit repair. As of October 16, the weekly production of electrolytic aluminum was 852,900 tons, an increase of 20 tons compared with the previous week. With the arrival of the consumption peak season, the proportion of aluminum water increased seasonally [72]. - Downstream Processing: This week, the production of recycled aluminum rods, aluminum rods, and aluminum strips and foils increased. The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream leading enterprises remained unchanged. The operating rate of aluminum profiles decreased, the operating rate of aluminum cables remained unchanged, the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloys decreased, and the operating rate of primary aluminum alloys increased [75][76][78]. 3.4 Profit - Alumina: This week, the alumina profit decreased slightly, with the metallurgical - grade alumina profit at 135.4 yuan/ton. The profits in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan remained stable, and the profit in Guangxi was better than that in other regions [82]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The electrolytic aluminum profit remains at a high level, but the complex global macro - economic situation and changing trade policies have increased uncertainties and interfered with market expectations [94]. - Downstream Processing: The processing fee of aluminum rods increased by 50 yuan/ton this week, but the downstream processing profit is still at a low level [95]. 3.5 Consumption - Import Profit and Loss: The import profit and loss of alumina and Shanghai aluminum have narrowed [104]. - Export: In August 2025, the export of unforged aluminum and aluminum products decreased slightly, a decrease of 8,000 tons compared with the previous month. The export profit and loss of aluminum processed materials showed differentiation [106][109]. - Apparent Demand: The apparent demand of primary aluminum and aluminum rods showed different trends. The transaction area of commercial housing decreased, while the automobile production increased month - on - month [113][115][116].