Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term methanol market is expected to fluctuate. The fundamental pressure on methanol is significant, but its valuation is moderately low. With numerous important macro - events recently, the price is likely to move in a volatile pattern. The upside pressure mainly comes from the supply side of the fundamentals, while the macro - end sentiment provides support [4]. - For trading strategies, the unilateral central shock is expected to move downward. The 01 contract has an upper pressure range of 2340 - 2350 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 2240 - 2250 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 month spread will enter a short - term shock pattern, and the MA - PP spread will also enter a shock pattern [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs This Week's Methanol Summary - Supply: From October 10 - 16, 2025, China's methanol production was 1,983,655 tons, a decrease of 47,850 tons from last week. The plant capacity utilization rate was 87.42%, a 2.36% week - on - week decline. Next week, production is expected to be around 1.9958 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate around 87.95% [4]. - Demand: - Olefins: The olefin industry has no planned adjustments in the short term, and the operating rate is expected to remain high. - Traditional downstream: Different traditional downstream products have different capacity utilization rate trends. For example, the overall capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether is expected to decline, while that of glacial acetic acid is expected to increase slightly [4]. - Inventory: - As of October 15, 2025, 11:30, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 359,900 tons, a 6.04% increase from the previous period. The sample enterprise orders to be delivered were 228,900 tons, a 98.64% increase. - As of October 15, 2025, the Chinese methanol port sample inventory was 1.4914 million tons, a 3.36% decrease from the previous period [4]. Price and Spread - Base, Monthly Spread, and Warehouse Receipts: The report presents historical data charts of methanol's base, monthly spread, and warehouse receipts from 2020 - 2025 [8][9][10]. - Domestic Spot Prices: It shows the historical price trends of domestic methanol in different regions such as Inner Mongolia, Henan, and Lunan from 2020 - 2025 [13][14][15]. - International Spot Prices: Charts display the historical price trends of international methanol in regions like China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR, and Rotterdam FOB from 2020 - 2025 [17][18][19]. - Port - Inland Price Spread: The report provides historical data charts of the price spread between ports and inland areas from 2020 - 2025 [20][21][22]. Supply - New Methanol Capacity: From 2024 - 2025, many new methanol plants were put into production in China, with a total capacity expansion of 4000000 tons in 2024 and 8400000 tons in 2025. Overseas, the total international capacity expansion was 3.55 million tons in 2024 and 3.3 million tons in 2025 [25]. - Methanol Maintenance: A list of domestic methanol plant shutdowns and production cuts is provided, including details such as province, enterprise name, capacity, maintenance start and end dates, etc. The total affected capacity is 8.54 million tons [27]. - Methanol Production and Operating Rate: Historical data charts of methanol production, capacity utilization rate in China and different regions, and production by different processes from 2018 - 2025 are presented [28][30][31]. - Methanol Import - Related: Charts show historical data on China's methanol import volume, import cost, arrival volume, and import profit from 2020 - 2025 [38][39][40]. - Methanol Cost and Profit: Historical data charts of methanol production costs and profits by different processes in different regions from 2020 - 2025 are shown [43][44][45]. Demand - Methanol Downstream Operating Rate: Historical data charts of the operating rates of methanol downstream industries such as methanol - to - olefins, dimethyl ether, and formaldehyde from 2020 - 2025 are presented [53][54][55]. - Methanol Downstream Profit: Charts show the historical profit data of methanol downstream industries in different regions from 2020 - 2025 [60][61][63]. - MTO Procurement Volume by Region: Historical data charts of the procurement volume of methanol - to - olefins production enterprises in different regions from 2020 - 2025 are provided [68][69][70]. - Traditional Downstream Raw Material Procurement Volume by Region: Historical data charts of the raw material procurement volume of traditional downstream methanol manufacturers in different regions from 2020 - 2025 are presented [73][74][75]. - Traditional Downstream Methanol Raw Material Inventory by Region: Charts show the historical inventory data of traditional downstream methanol raw materials in different regions from 2020 - 2025 [78][79][80]. Inventory - Methanol Factory Inventory: Historical data charts of methanol factory inventory in China and different regions from 2018 - 2025 are presented [83][84][85]. - Methanol Port Inventory: Charts show the historical inventory data of methanol ports in China and different regions from 2018 - 2025 [89][90][91].
国泰君安期货·能源化工甲醇周度报告-20251019
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-10-19 11:11