聚酯数据周报-20251019

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - PX is expected to enter a short - term volatile market with expanding profits, and it is recommended to hold long PXN positions [3]. - PTA shows a weak trend, and it is advisable to hold long PTA and short PX positions and 1 - 5 backwardation [4]. - MEG has a weak trend due to cost collapse, and it is recommended to reduce short positions below 4000 yuan/ton and maintain 1 - 5 backwardation [5]. - The polyester industry's consumption is expected to improve as the weather turns cold and with the marginal increase in Double Eleven orders, but the long - filament segment still faces pressure [3][4][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PX Valuation and Profit - PXN is at 246 dollars/ton (+16), and the PX - MX Korea FOB spread is 102 dollars (+3). The decline in crude oil prices has led to the expansion of PX profits again [3]. - The unilateral PX price has been continuously decreasing due to negative demand feedback and weak cost support. The PX outer - market monthly spread is generally stable, while PXN has weakened significantly [19][25]. - Overseas oil product cracking spreads are strong, supporting overseas aromatic hydrocarbon valuations. The PX - MX spread has weakened significantly, and the Asian MX blending oil market has recovered [29][42]. Supply and Demand, Inventory - This week, the domestic PX plant operating rate is 84.9% (-3.5%), and the Asian overall load operating rate is 78% (-1.9%). Multiple overseas plants are scheduled for maintenance, and the supply - demand situation is slightly tight [3][55]. - In August, the PX import volume was 880,000 tons, and the import volume from South Korea increased significantly. The estimated import volume in September is 850,000 tons [56]. - In September, the PX monthly inventory in Longzhong dropped to 3.92 million tons (+30,000 tons) [70]. PTA Valuation and Profit - The 1 - 5 monthly spread of PTA is in backwardation. The processing fee is at a low level, weakening the plant's willingness to start operations [76][82]. - The PTA basis has declined due to negative demand feedback, sufficient supply in East China, and the planned commissioning of new plants [77]. Supply and Demand, Inventory - The PTA operating rate is maintained at around 76.7% (+2.3%). The new Fengming PTA plant is planned to start operation this week, and the production volume this week is 1.45 million tons. Attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of the new Indian PTA plant GAIL [4][86]. - In August, the PTA export volume was 300,000 tons, and the export profit has decreased [90]. - The PTA inventory is at a low level [103]. MEG Valuation and Profit - The MEG basis is maintained at around 70 yuan/ton. MEG's valuation relative to ethylene oxide, styrene, and plastics has rebounded to the highest level this year [119][124]. - The profit of coal - based MEG plants is 47 yuan/ton (-171), while oil - based plants continue to operate at a loss [127]. Supply and Demand, Inventory - The MEG operating rate has reached a new high this year. This week, the operating rate continued to rise, and some plants will undergo maintenance and shutdown next week, which may cause a slight decline [129][130]. - In August, the MEG import volume was about 590,000 tons, and it is expected to recover in September [131]. - Multiple overseas MEG plants are under maintenance, and the European arbitrage window is gradually closing [138][141]. - The MEG port inventory has increased marginally [146]. Polyester Segment Valuation and Profit No relevant content provided. Supply and Demand, Inventory - The polyester operating rate is 91.4% (-0.1%). The profit of the polyester segment has been repaired, and the bottle - chip segment with successful inventory management is expected to increase its load, but the long - filament segment still faces pressure [150][153]. - The polyester production volume has increased by 8% year - on - year [157].