存单周报（1013-1019）：央行投放偏短及利率兜底过渡期临近，存单供给有诉求-20251019

Report Information - Report Title: [Bond Weekly Report] Certificate of Deposit Weekly Report (1013 - 1019): The Central Bank's Short - term Injection and the Approaching Transition Period of Interest Rate Floor, CD Supply Has Demands [1] - Report Date: October 19, 2025 [1] - Research Institute: Huachuang Securities Research Institute [1] - Analysts: Zhou Guannan, Song Qi [1] Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The supply of certificates of deposit (CDs) may still have demands, and the short - term pricing may be in a high - level volatile state due to the central bank's short - term injection and the approaching transition period of the "interest rate adjustment floor clause." The issuance willingness of CDs has been strong since October, and there may be disturbances on the bank's liability side in the future. The demand from wealth management and money funds may be limited seasonally. The central bank is expected to continue the idea of over - renewal of MLF. The 1 - year state - owned and joint - stock bank CDs are expected to fluctuate around 1.65 - 1.7% [2][49]. Summary by Directory Supply: Net Financing Turns Positive, and the Maturity Structure Lengthens - This week (October 13 - 19), the CD issuance scale was 729.53 billion yuan, and the net financing was 224.66 billion yuan (compared with - 49.23 billion yuan from September 29 to October 12). The issuance proportion of state - owned banks decreased from 22% to 14%, while that of joint - stock banks increased from 26% to 36% [2][5]. - In terms of maturity, the issuance proportion of 1 - year CDs increased from 14% to 19%, and the weighted issuance maturity of CDs rose to 6.07 months (previously 5.22 months). Next week (October 20 - 26), the maturity scale will increase to 617.11 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 112.24 billion yuan [2][5]. Demand: Money Market Funds and Wealth Management Are the Main Secondary - Market Allocators, and the Primary - Market Subscription Rate Declines - In the secondary market, money market funds and wealth management products are the main allocators, with weekly net purchases of 8.865 billion yuan and 3.5221 billion yuan respectively. The net sales of city commercial banks increased from 6.0859 billion yuan to 10.2508 billion yuan [2]. - In the primary market, the overall market subscription rate (15DMA) dropped to around 86%. Among different types of banks, the subscription rate of city commercial banks decreased from 86% to 84%, that of state - owned banks decreased from 89% to 85%, and that of joint - stock banks remained around 83% [18][20]. Valuation: Slight Price Increase in the Primary Market of CDs, and the Secondary - Market Yield Rises - In the primary market, the weighted issuance rate of 1 - year state - owned and joint - stock bank CDs is around 1.67%. Specifically, the 1 - month variety remained unchanged from last week, while the 3 - month and 9 - month varieties increased by 2bp, the 6 - month variety increased by 3bp, and the 1 - year variety increased by 4bp [2][20]. - In terms of term spreads, the 1Y - 3M term spread of joint - stock banks increased by 3bp, at the 21% historical quantile. In terms of credit spreads, the spread between 1 - year city commercial banks and joint - stock banks narrowed from 11.43BP to 7.76BP, at around the 6% quantile, while the spread between rural commercial banks and joint - stock banks widened from 6.00BP to 8.27BP, close to the 15% quantile [2][20]. - In the secondary market, the yields of AAA - rated CDs generally increased. The 1 - month and 3 - month varieties increased by 3bp, the 6 - month variety increased by 2bp, the 9 - month variety increased by 1bp, and the 1 - year variety increased slightly to the 7% historical quantile level since 2019. The 1Y - 3M term spread of AAA - rated CDs decreased to the 17% historical quantile level [29]. Comparison: The Spread between Medium - and Short - Term Notes and CDs Continues to Narrow - The spread between 1 - year AAA - rated CDs and the 15 - day moving average of DR007 widened from 14.37BP to 18.44BP; the spread with the 15 - day moving average of R007 widened from 7.21BP to 9.99BP. The yield of 1 - year treasury bonds increased by 6.93bp, and the spread between CDs and treasury bonds narrowed from 28.84BP to 22.29BP, with the quantile dropping to around 3%. The spread between CDs and China Development Bank bonds narrowed from 4.52BP to 4.13BP, with the quantile dropping to 0%. In addition, the spread between AAA medium - and short - term notes and CDs narrowed from 7.89BP to 5.91BP, with the quantile dropping to 24% [2][37].