Guoxin Securities·2025-10-19 11:30Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the food and beverage sector [4][5][15]. Core Views - The food and beverage sector is expected to see a recovery in demand, with specific focus on the upcoming quarterly reports and potential policy catalysts, particularly for Kweichow Moutai, which is anticipated to undergo a revaluation [2][3][10]. - The report highlights a divergence in the fundamentals of different categories, with beverages outperforming food and alcoholic beverages [2][10]. - The overall sentiment in the food and beverage sector is characterized by low expectations, low holdings, and low bases, suggesting that any changes in supply and demand could significantly impact stock prices [3][10]. Summary by Category Alcoholic Beverages - The report anticipates a quicker release of third-quarter results, with a focus on policy catalysts. Kweichow Moutai is expected to see a revaluation due to improved sales dynamics and liquidity [2][10]. - Recommendations include Luzhou Laojiao for its strategic advantages and product growth, and Kweichow Moutai for its potential value reappraisal [2][10]. Beverages - The beverage sector is experiencing stable demand recovery, with a focus on dairy products and the potential for upward elasticity in supply and demand by 2025. The report recommends leading dairy company Yili for its valuation safety margin [2][12]. - The report continues to recommend Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Beverage for their accelerated operations and national expansion strategies [2][14]. Snacks - The report emphasizes the importance of selecting alpha-type stocks with strong certainty, particularly in the konjac snack category, where leading companies like Weidong and Yanjinpuzi are highlighted for their competitive advantages and strong growth potential [2][11]. Restaurant Supply Chain - The restaurant supply chain is entering a peak observation phase, with stable demand and a focus on inventory clearance. Recommendations include leading companies in the seasoning sector like Haitian Flavoring and Ajinomoto, as well as new channels that may bring incremental growth [2][12][13]. Key Companies and Earnings Forecasts - Kweichow Moutai is projected to have total revenues of CNY 186.3 billion and CNY 193.0 billion for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with net profits of CNY 90.5 billion and CNY 94.0 billion [15]. - Other recommended companies include Nongfu Spring, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Dongpeng Beverage, and Weidong, all rated as "Outperform the Market" with strong earnings growth expectations [4][15].