3季报大超预期，市场风格切换支撑非银估值修复

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the securities sector, indicating high growth potential and attractive valuation metrics [2][3]. Core Insights - The securities sector is experiencing significant short-term performance improvements, with a notable increase in market activity, including a 211% year-on-year rise in average daily stock trading volume to 21.1 trillion yuan [2]. - The report highlights a strong performance in initial public offerings (IPOs) and refinancing activities, with IPO sizes growing by 148% year-on-year and refinancing up by 217% [2]. - The report emphasizes the high valuation attractiveness of the sector, with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.44, which is at the 41st percentile of the past decade [2]. - The report identifies three main investment themes: focusing on brokers with high trading volumes, exploring potential mergers and acquisitions in the brokerage sector, and investing in companies with strong performance in the technology and biotechnology sectors [3]. Summary by Sections Securities Sector - The average daily stock trading volume in Q3 reached 21.1 trillion yuan, reflecting a 211% increase year-on-year [2]. - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 12.7% in the quarter, while the CSI 300 Index increased by 17.9% [2]. - The report notes a 49% year-on-year increase in the average daily margin trading balance, reaching 2.1 trillion yuan [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on brokers with high trading volumes and significant investment proportions, as well as those with low valuations compared to peers [3]. - It suggests monitoring companies in the biotechnology sector, particularly those involved in gene therapy and venture capital [3]. - The report highlights the Hong Kong Stock Exchange as a potential beneficiary of increased trading activity and market expansion due to A-share companies listing in Hong Kong [3]. Insurance Sector - The report indicates strong performance in the insurance sector, with companies like New China Life and China Pacific Insurance expected to report significant profit increases [4]. - New China Life's net profit for the first three quarters is projected to be between 29.986 billion and 34.122 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 45% to 65% [4]. - China Pacific Insurance is expected to report a net profit of 37.45 billion to 42.8 billion yuan for the same period, reflecting a growth of 40% to 60% [4]. Investment Recommendations for Insurance - The report suggests that the insurance sector is well-positioned for a recovery, with a focus on companies that have strong beta characteristics and those that are undervalued [5]. - It recommends investing in companies with good business quality and low liability costs, particularly those that have transformed into dividend insurance models [5].