5000亿限额结转，Q4政府债供给怎么看？

Local Government Bonds - The new transfer limit of 500 billion yuan for local government bonds has two main features: expanded funding usage and a total transfer amount that remains the same as last year at 500 billion yuan[1][12]. - In Q3 2025, local government bond issuance reached a peak of 30,430 billion yuan, but net financing decreased to 17,385 billion yuan due to a significant increase in maturing bonds[2][21]. - Despite the new 500 billion yuan transfer limit, the net financing pressure for local government bonds in Q4 is manageable, estimated at around 1.3 trillion yuan, a decrease of approximately 4,385 billion yuan from the previous quarter[2][25]. National Bonds - In Q3 2025, national bonds saw a record net issuance of 20,192 billion yuan, an increase of 1,766 billion yuan year-on-year, and 1,071 billion yuan from the previous quarter[3][32]. - The remaining net financing for national bonds in Q4 is projected at 12,600 billion yuan, which is a year-on-year increase of about 1,712 billion yuan but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of approximately 7,592 billion yuan[3][38]. Policy Financial Bonds - The net issuance of policy financial bonds in Q3 2025 was 7,602 billion yuan, showing significant growth compared to previous years, particularly in August when it reached 3,924 billion yuan[4][43]. - For Q4, the net financing scale of policy financial bonds may exceed seasonal norms, potentially reaching 6,800 billion yuan, which is an increase of about 1,704 billion yuan compared to the average from 2020 to 2024[6][48].