资产配置周报：关注经济数据和重要会议指引，寻找资产配置方向-20251019

Group 1: Market Overview and Asset Allocation Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring economic data and key meetings to guide asset allocation strategies. As of the week ending October 17, there has been a decline in asset risk appetite, with technology stocks retreating and dividend sectors strengthening. Commodity prices showed mixed results, with gold, copper, and aluminum rising, while most other industrial products fell. U.S. Treasury yields decreased, and domestic trade data indicated a rebound in both imports and exports, with a continued expansion of trade surplus [8][9][10]. - The report highlights the upcoming release of China's Q3 GDP data, which will be analyzed from investment, consumption, and export perspectives. It also notes the ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions, particularly in sectors like rare earths and semiconductors, while expressing optimism about the development of artificial intelligence and its impact on the chip industry [8][9][10]. Group 2: Global Asset Review - The global stock market exhibited mixed performance during the week of October 17, with the French CAC index leading gains, supported by easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China. The report ranks major equity indices, with the CAC40 outperforming others, while the Hang Seng and ChiNext indices lagged behind [11][12]. - In commodities, oil prices continued to decline due to geopolitical easing, while gold prices reached new historical highs driven by safe-haven demand. The report notes that the industrial product futures market saw a decline in the South China Industrial Product Price Index, with slight increases in coking coal prices [11][12]. Group 3: Domestic Equity Market Review - The domestic equity market saw a shift in style, favoring financials over consumption, cyclical, and growth sectors. The average daily trading volume was reported at 21,766 billion yuan, down from the previous week's 25,869 billion yuan. Among the 31 sectors tracked, only four sectors saw gains, with banking (+4.89%) and coal (+4.17%) leading, while electronics (-7.14%) and media (-6.27%) faced significant declines [18][19]. Group 4: Interest Rates and Currency Exchange Rates - The report indicates that the funding environment remains ample, despite pressures from tax payments and MLF maturities. The central bank's supportive stance is expected to maintain a loose liquidity environment. Short-term interest rates have remained low, with DR001 and DR007 weighted average rates reported [20][21]. - The report notes a decline in U.S. Treasury yields, with the 2Y and 10Y yields falling to 3.46% and 4.02%, respectively. The dollar index decreased, leading to a corresponding appreciation of the offshore yuan against the dollar, with expectations for the yuan to fluctuate between 7.10 and 7.20 [25][26]. Group 5: Commodity Tracking - The report tracks energy commodities, noting that WTI crude oil prices fell to $57.54 per barrel, a decrease of 2.3% from the previous week. U.S. crude oil production increased to 13.636 million barrels per day, while the number of active drilling rigs decreased [26][27]. - Gold prices reached $4,251.45 per ounce, marking a 5.81% increase week-over-week, driven by ongoing government shutdowns and expectations of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The report suggests that the long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to increasing safe-haven demand [43][44].