有色及贵金属周报合集-20251019

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The copper market is in a state of caution due to the game between supply constraints and trade uncertainties. Macro risks have eased, and the supply shortage logic persists, providing long - term opportunities for bulls. Attention should be paid to the development of trade frictions. [6][10] - For aluminum, it is still testing the 21,000 - yuan level. The market is worried about the escalation of Sino - US trade frictions. In the short - term, the price shows a convergent oscillation. In the long - term, there is a bullish view on the unilateral price, volatility, and smelting profit. [78] - Regarding alumina, it is necessary to focus on whether the bottom has been found below 2,800 yuan. The spot market is weak in the short - term, but it has entered the cost - valuation support test phase. [79] Summary by Directory Copper Industry Trading End - Volatility: The volatility of LME and COMEX copper has increased. COMEX copper price volatility is around 27%, and SHFE copper volatility is around 25%. [16] - Term Spread: The term structure of SHFE copper has flattened, the spot discount of LME copper has narrowed, and the near - end structure of COMEX copper has changed from B to C. [18][22] - Position: The positions of SHFE and international copper have decreased, while the position of COMEX copper has increased. SHFE copper position decreased by 47,700 lots to 530,600 lots. [23] - Capital and Industry Position: The net short position of LME commercial enterprises has decreased, and the net long position of CFTC non - commercial has also decreased slightly. [29] - Spot Premium: The domestic copper spot premium has strengthened, and the bonded - area copper premium has declined. [32][34] - Inventory: The global total copper inventory has increased, with a significant increase in domestic social inventory. [35][37] - Position - to - Inventory Ratio: The position - to - inventory ratio of LME copper has recovered, while that of SHFE copper is at a historically low level. [38] Supply End - Copper Concentrate: The import of copper concentrate has increased year - on - year, the port inventory has decreased, and the processing fee has remained weak. [41] - Recycled Copper: The import and domestic production of recycled copper have increased year - on - year. The scrap - refined copper price difference has narrowed, and the import loss has also decreased. [42][47] - Blister Copper: The import of blister copper has decreased, and the processing fee is at a low level. [51] - Refined Copper: The production and import of refined copper have increased year - on - year, and the spot import loss has narrowed. [54][55] Demand End - Operating Rate: The operating rate of copper product enterprises has rebounded in September, and the operating rate of wire and cable has increased marginally. [58] - Profit: The processing fee of copper rods is at a historically low level, while that of copper tubes has recovered. [60][62] - Raw Material Inventory: The raw material inventory of wire and cable enterprises remains at a low level. [63] - Finished - Product Inventory: The finished - product inventory of copper rods has increased, while that of wire and cable has decreased. [66] Consumption End - Apparent Consumption: The apparent consumption of copper is good, and grid investment is an important support. The grid investment has accelerated, and the cumulative investment from January to August reached 379.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14%. [71][73] - Air - Conditioner and New - Energy Vehicle: The production of air - conditioners has resumed growth, and the production of new - energy vehicles is at a historically high level. [74] Aluminum and Alumina Industry Trading End - Term Spread: The spot premium of A00 aluminum and alumina has strengthened, and the near - month spread of SHFE aluminum has narrowed. [82][85] - Volume and Position: The position of SHFE aluminum and alumina main contracts has increased slightly, while the trading volume has decreased slightly. [88] - Position - to - Inventory Ratio: The position - to - inventory ratio of SHFE aluminum and alumina has declined. [93] Inventory End - Bauxite: The port inventory and inventory days of bauxite have increased. The inventory of alumina enterprises has continued to accumulate, the port shipping volume and floating inventory have decreased, and the out - port and in - port volumes have also declined. [98][103][104] - Alumina: The social inventory of alumina has increased, and the price has continued to decline. [79] - Aluminum: The social inventory of aluminum has decreased, and the spot premium has changed from discount to flat or premium. [78]