棕榈油:产地去库进程偏慢,关注下方支撑豆油:南美产情暂好,豆系缺乏有效驱动豆粕:贸易事件不确定,低位震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-10-19 11:51

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Palm Oil and Soybean Oil: The palm oil origin has a slow destocking process, and the year - end inventory is likely to increase, lacking strong upward drivers. The soybean oil is affected by South American production and policy delays, and the market may fluctuate until the end of the year [6][8][9]. - Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1: The prices of soybean meal and soybean No.1 are expected to fluctuate. The soybean meal market is influenced by trade events, while the soybean No.1 is affected by Sino - US trade frictions and domestic policy expectations [22]. - Corn: The corn market is expected to run in a volatile manner. The price decline in the Northeast may slow down, and the quality problem in North China may lead to price differentiation [30][35]. - Sugar: The sugar market is in a low - level oscillation. The international market is weakly expected, and the domestic market is affected by production, consumption, and import policies [61][86]. - Cotton: The cotton futures price is expected to be narrowly volatile in the short term, affected by new cotton listing, hedging willingness, and international economic and trade situations [89][105]. - Pigs: The pig spot price is expected to be weak, with increasing supply and decreasing demand in October. The futures market needs to pay attention to the basis - narrowing market [109][110]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Last Week's View and Logic: The palm oil 01 contract fluctuated slightly with a 1.90% weekly decline due to the lack of effective drivers. The soybean oil 01 contract followed the oil and fat sector and Sino - US economic and trade relations, with a 0.82% weekly decline [5]. - This Week's View and Logic: The palm oil origin has high inventory pressure, and the demand side lacks strong drivers. The soybean oil is affected by South American production and policy delays, and the market may fluctuate until the end of the year [6][8][9]. - Market Data: The palm oil main - continuous contract closed at 9,308 yuan/ton with a 1.90% decline, and the soybean oil main - continuous contract closed at 8,256 yuan/ton with a 0.82% decline [11]. Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - Last Week's Market Situation: The US soybean futures prices rose, while the domestic soybean meal futures prices were weak, and the soybean No.1 futures prices were strong. The international soybean market was affected by the US government shutdown, Brazilian soybean import costs, and planting progress [19]. - This Week's Market Situation: The prices of soybean meal and soybean No.1 are expected to fluctuate. The soybean meal market is influenced by trade events, while the soybean No.1 is affected by Sino - US trade frictions and domestic policy expectations [22]. - Market Data: The soybean meal main m2601 contract had a 1.85% weekly decline, and the soybean No.1 main a2511 contract had a 2.03% weekly increase [19]. Corn - Market Review: The corn spot price fell last week, while the futures price rebounded. The CBOT corn rose, the wheat price increased, the corn starch inventory increased, and attention should be paid to the new grain listing situation [30][31][32][33][34][35]. - Market Outlook: The corn market is expected to run in a volatile manner. The price decline in the Northeast may slow down, and the quality problem in North China may lead to price differentiation [30][35]. - Market Data: The national corn average price was 2,263.14 yuan/ton last week, and the corn futures main contract C2511 closed at 2,117 yuan/ton [30][31]. Sugar - This Week's Market Review: The international sugar market had a weak performance, with the New York raw sugar active contract price falling 3.54%. The domestic sugar market also declined, with the Zhengzhou sugar main contract price falling 84 yuan/ton [59][60]. - Next Week's Market Outlook: The sugar market is in a low - level oscillation. The international market is weakly expected, and the domestic market is affected by production, consumption, and import policies [61][86]. - Market Data: The Guangxi group spot sugar price was 5,770 yuan/ton, and the Zhengzhou sugar main contract price was 5,412 yuan/ton [70]. Cotton - Market Review: The ICE cotton first fell and then rose, and the domestic cotton futures stabilized and rebounded. The new cotton listing and hedging willingness restricted the rebound of Zhengzhou cotton futures, while the high basis and relatively low price provided support [89]. - Market Outlook: The cotton futures price is expected to be narrowly volatile in the short term, affected by new cotton listing, hedging willingness, and international economic and trade situations [89][105]. - Market Data: The ICE cotton main - continuous contract closed at 64.29 cents/pound with a 0.82% increase, and the Zhengzhou cotton main - continuous contract closed at 13,335 yuan/ton with a 0.08% increase [92]. Pigs - This Week's Market Review: The pig spot price fluctuated, and the futures price was weak. The supply was loose, and the demand was limited after the festival [107][108]. - Next Week's Market Outlook: The pig spot price is expected to be weak, with increasing supply and decreasing demand in October. The futures market needs to pay attention to the basis - narrowing market [109][110]. - Market Data: The Henan pig price was 11.38 yuan/kg, and the LH2511 contract closed at 11,050 yuan/ton [107][108].