燃料油周报：油价中枢持续走低，低硫油市场承压-20251019

Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, short-term focus on the progress of China-US tariff negotiations [7] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, short-term focus on the progress of China-US tariff negotiations [7] - Cross-variety: None [7] - Cross-period: None [7] - Spot-futures: None [7] - Options: None [7] Core Viewpoints - The fuel oil futures market is under pressure as the peak season ends, the crude oil fundamentals weaken, and macro risks increase. Both high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oil face challenges in supply, demand, and market structure [1]. - The supply of high-sulfur fuel oil may increase due to the easing of the Middle East situation and the release of OPEC's production capacity, while the supply of low-sulfur fuel oil has seen a recent increase but is expected to ease [2][3]. - The demand for fuel oil is affected by factors such as China-US trade frictions, the replacement of low-sulfur fuel oil in the marine fuel market, and the decline in power generation demand after summer [4]. - The inventory of fuel oil has increased in some regions, and the market structure of high-sulfur fuel oil has strengthened marginally, while that of low-sulfur fuel oil has weakened [5][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - This week, the fuel oil futures market declined. The FU main contract fell 5.54%, and the LU main contract dropped 7.13% [1]. Supply High-sulfur Fuel Oil - The Middle East situation has eased, and OPEC's relaxation of production cuts may increase the supply of high-sulfur fuel oil. Middle East's September high-sulfur fuel oil shipments are expected to be 4.41 million tons, and October's are estimated at 3.72 million tons [2]. - Iran's September shipments are expected to be 1.45 million tons, and October's are estimated at 0.57 million tons. The US sanctions on Iran continue to increase the difficulty of its oil trade [2]. - Russia's high-sulfur fuel oil supply decreased in August due to refinery maintenance but rebounded in September. September's shipments are expected to be 2.97 million tons, and October's are estimated at 1.97 million tons [2]. Low-sulfur Fuel Oil - There has been a recent increase in local supply, mainly from Nigeria's temporary increase. Nigeria's September low-sulfur fuel oil shipments are expected to be 0.53 million tons, and October's are estimated at 0.34 million tons [3]. - Kuwait's exports are relatively limited. September's shipments are 0.37 million tons, and October's are expected to be 0.4 million tons [3]. - China's domestic production of low-sulfur fuel oil has been low this year due to poor profitability and refinery maintenance. September's production was 1.075 million tons, a 0.94% increase from the previous month [3]. Demand - China-US trade frictions and potential tariff increases may damage trade and shipping demand, affecting the consumption of marine fuel oil. There may be a short-term increase in exports due to the anticipation of tariffs [4]. - The demand for low-sulfur fuel oil in the marine fuel market is being replaced by new desulfurization towers and cleaner energy sources such as LNG and green methanol [4]. - After the summer, the power generation demand in the Middle East, South Asia, and Egypt will decline, reducing the consumption of high-sulfur fuel oil. However, Egypt's demand may increase due to the decline in domestic natural gas production [4]. - The demand from refineries has shown a marginal increase. China's high-sulfur fuel oil imports in September are expected to be 0.5 million tons, and October's arrivals are estimated at 0.84 million tons [4]. Inventory - This week, Singapore's fuel oil inventory was 25.063 million barrels, a 5.89% increase from the previous week, and Zhoushan Port's inventory was 1.35 million tons, a 21.62% increase [5]. Market Structure High-sulfur Fuel Oil - The market structure has strengthened marginally due to reduced supply pressure, improved refinery demand, and a decrease in domestic futures registered warehouse receipts [5]. - However, the upward momentum may be limited due to the decline in power generation demand after summer, potential increases in Middle East exports, and potential risks in shipping demand [5]. Low-sulfur Fuel Oil - The market structure has weakened recently due to increased local supply and average marine fuel demand [6]. - If the Dangote refinery resumes operation, the supply may decrease. However, if China-US tariff conflicts intensify, the shipping demand will be affected, and the low-sulfur fuel oil market may be more sensitive [6]. - The demand for low-sulfur fuel oil is under continuous downward pressure due to the trend of carbon neutrality in the shipping industry. If the trade risks ease, the downside space may be limited based on its relatively low valuation compared to gasoline and diesel [6].