FICC周报：关注国内三季度经济数据及中美关系市场分析-20251019

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [5] Core Viewpoints - The gap between strong expectations and weak reality in the domestic market has widened. In August, China's economic data showed signs of weakness, and external tariff pressure has increased. The government has proposed policies to stabilize growth, and attention should be paid to policy expectations and the potential correction of the current off - peak season situation [1] - Sino - US tariff frictions have intensified, and before the APEC Summit in South Korea from October 28th to November 1st, the risk impact of tariff escalation on the market should be vigilant [2] - The US government shutdown has affected the release of economic data. The market has under - priced the severity of the shutdown, and the subsequent development of the event should be monitored [3] - For commodity sectors, a wait - and - see approach is recommended in the near term. Different sectors have different characteristics and risks, and attention should be paid to specific factors such as downstream demand, supply constraints, and policy impacts [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In China, the economic pressure increased marginally in August, with characteristics of "slow industry, weak investment, and sluggish consumption". In September, exports were resilient, and the M2 - M1 gap reached a new low for the year. To cope with external pressure, the government proposed policies to stabilize growth, with a new policy - based financial instrument scale of 500 billion yuan [1] - Sino - US tariff frictions have escalated. The US has taken a series of measures such as including Chinese enterprises in the entity list and imposing additional tariffs, and China has responded with counter - measures. The risk impact of tariff escalation on the market should be vigilant before the APEC Summit [2] - The US government shutdown has affected the release of economic data. The market has under - priced the severity of the shutdown. In September, the US Markit manufacturing and services PMI declined slightly, and in August, new home sales increased unexpectedly [3] Commodity Analysis - For commodities, a wait - and - see approach is recommended in the near term. The black sector is affected by downstream demand expectations, the non - ferrous sector has long - term supply constraints, the energy sector has a relatively loose supply in the medium - term, the chemical sector has "anti - involution" space, agricultural products are driven by tariff and inflation expectations, and precious metals have high short - term price fluctuation risks [4] Strategy - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [5] Important News - In the first three quarters of this year, China's total goods trade imports and exports were 33.61 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4%. In September, exports and imports increased, and the trade surplus decreased [6] - China has taken counter - measures against South Korea's Hanwha Ocean's five US - related subsidiaries for their support of the US government's investigation against China [6] - China's September monetary supply, social financing scale, and credit data have changed, and the decline in CPI and PPI has narrowed [6] - The Fed Chairman may stop reducing the balance sheet in the next few months. The US Treasury Secretary plans to submit candidates for the next Fed Chairman to Trump after Thanksgiving [6] - The US Senate failed to advance the Republican's temporary appropriation bill, and a judge blocked the government's plan to lay off employees during the shutdown. US API crude oil and refined oil inventory data have changed [3][6] Economic Heat Maps - US Economic Heat Map: In September, the US Markit manufacturing PMI was 52.0, and the services PMI was 54.2. Investment, consumption, and other aspects showed different trends, and the contribution rates of various factors to GDP were different [8] - European Economic Heat Map: In September, the European manufacturing PMI was 49.8, and the services PMI was 51.3. Inflation, trade, and other aspects also had corresponding changes [9] - Chinese Economic Heat Map: In September, China's GDP grew steadily. Investment, consumption, and other fields showed different trends, and the contribution rates of consumption, investment, and net exports to GDP were 44.5%, 25.2% + 30.3%, and the rest respectively [10]