农产品周报：供需格局未改，长期猪价维持弱势-20251019

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - For the pig industry: Cautiously bearish [3] - For the egg industry: Cautiously bearish [6] 2. Core Views - Pig market: The short - term pig price is supported by the strong demand for secondary fattening, but in the long run, due to the unchanged supply - demand pattern, the pig price will remain weak [1][2][3] - Egg market: During the seasonal consumption off - season, the large supply pressure suppresses the spot price, and the market sentiment is pessimistic. The spot price is expected to fluctuate weakly [5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pig Market News and Key Data - Futures: On October 17, 2025, the closing price of the live pig 2601 contract was 11,670 yuan/ton, down 470 yuan from last week [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of ternary live pigs was 11.28 yuan/kg, up 0.09 yuan/kg from last week; in Jiangsu, it was 11.44 yuan/kg, up 0.17 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 10.83 yuan/kg, down 0.13 yuan/kg [1] - Supply: In September, the inventory of reproductive sows was 5.0421 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 0.28%; the culling volume was 106,603 heads, a month - on - month increase of 2.54%. In August, the inventory of commercial pigs was 36.8499 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 1.44%. In September, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs was 10.2173 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 4.54%. This week, the average slaughter weight of ternary live pigs nationwide was 123.43 kg, down 0.05 kg from last week [1] - Demand: This week, the slaughter enterprise start - up rate was 32.38%, down 2.15 percentage points from last week [1] - Inventory: This week, the frozen product storage capacity rate of domestic key slaughter enterprises was 17.84%, up 0.09% [1] Market Analysis - Supply side: This week, the supply pressure continued to rise, with group farms and individual farmers actively slaughtering. Future pig slaughter is expected to remain at a high level [2] - Demand side: After the double festivals, consumption was sluggish, but the current strong demand for secondary fattening supported the spot price in the short term. However, secondary fattening will lead to an increase in pig supply in a few months, and the problem of supply shift is prominent [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish. In the short term, the pig price will fluctuate at the bottom, and in the long run, it may continue to decline [3] Egg Market News and Key Data - Futures: Last week, the closing price of the main egg futures 2511 contract was 2,805 yuan/500 kg, down 1 yuan from the previous week, a decrease of 0.04% [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg spot price was 3.02 yuan/jin, up 0.12 yuan/jin from the previous week; in Hebei, it was 2.94 yuan/jin, up 0.11 yuan/jin; in Shandong, it was 2.92 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin [3] - Supply: In September, the inventory of laying hens in the country was about 1.313 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.30% and a year - on - year increase of 8.87%. Last week, the slaughter volume of culled hens was 600,100, a month - on - month increase of 2.81%, and the average slaughter age was 497 days, down 1 day from the previous week [3] - Demand: Last week, 92 trucks of eggs arrived in the Beijing market, an increase of 6 trucks from the previous week; 453 trucks arrived in the Guangdong market, a decrease of 20 trucks [3] - Inventory: Last week, the production - link inventory in key national regions was 1.32 days, a month - on - month decrease of 30.53%; the circulation - link inventory was 1.40 days, a month - on - month decrease of 29.29% [3] Market Analysis - Supply side: Last week, the price of culled hens continued to decline, and the slaughter volume increased slightly. It is expected that the slaughter volume will change little this week. The number of newly - opened laying hens in October decreased, but due to the high inventory of laying hens and the recovery of the egg - laying rate, the supply pressure is large [5] - Demand side: Last week, traders replenished their stocks actively, and this week, the consumer demand is weak, mainly focusing on digesting the previous inventory [5] Strategy - In the seasonal consumption off - season, the large supply pressure suppresses the spot price. The market sentiment is pessimistic, and the spot price is expected to fluctuate weakly. Unilateral operation: Cautiously bearish [6]