农产品周报：国内供应宽松，豆粕价格弱势震荡-20251019

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the粕类 and corn markets is "cautiously bearish" [4][8] Core Viewpoints - The current supply in the domestic market is ample, and it is expected to remain in a state of loose supply in the future. The focus of the market will be on policy changes, the harvest and export of new-season US soybeans, and the import situation of new-season US soybeans will affect the market supply and demand around the Spring Festival. For the corn market, the current pattern of supply exceeding demand remains unchanged, and the price of new grain is generally low. Future attention should be paid to national policies [3][7] Summary by Related Catalogs 粕类 Market Futures and Spot Prices - The closing price of the bean粕 2601 contract last weekend was 2,922 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 54 yuan or 1.54%. The closing price of the rapeseed粕 2601 contract was 2,306 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 85 yuan or 3.55%. In the spot market, the prices in different regions showed varying degrees of decline or stability, and the spot basis generally increased [1] Supply and Demand Data - South America: As of the week ending October 8, Argentine farmers sold 1.2824 million tons of 2024/25 season soybeans, with cumulative sales reaching 37.5432 million tons. Brazil's soybean export volume in October is expected to be 7.31 million tons [1] - Domestic: From week 40 - 41 in 2025, the arrival of soybeans at domestic full - sample oil mills totaled about 3.4125 million tons. In week 41, the soybean inventory of national oil mills rose to 7.6576 million tons, an increase of 6.37% compared to before the holiday and 14.29% year - on - year. The bean粕 inventory was 1.0791 million tons, a decrease of 9.26% compared to the week of September 26 and an increase of 6.17% year - on - year. The total bean粕 sales volume was 896,700 tons, an increase of 54.05% compared to before the National Day holiday. The total bean粕 pick - up volume was 1.085 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 211,000 tons [2] - Rapeseed粕: As of October 9, the rapeseed crushing volume of coastal oil mills was 14,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from the previous period. As of October 10, the rapeseed oil production was 5,700 tons, a decrease of 2,500 tons from the previous period, and the rapeseed粕 production was 8,300 tons, a decrease of 3,500 tons from the previous period [3] Market Analysis - Although the US Department of Agriculture has not released the latest data recently, Brazil's export situation is good, significantly higher than the historical average, which puts pressure on the CBOT US soybean price. The increase in Brazil's exports has also led to a relatively sufficient domestic supply, and it is expected that the supply will remain loose in the future [3] Corn Market Futures and Spot Prices - The closing price of the corn 2601 contract last week was 2,117 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 8 yuan or 0.38%. The closing price of the starch 2601 contract was 2,384 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 46 yuan or 1.89%. In the spot market, the prices in different regions also showed varying degrees of decline or increase in the basis [5] Supply, Demand and Inventory Data - Supply: In August 2025, the corn import volume was 36,000 tons, a 91.56% decrease compared to the same period last year. From January to August, the total imported corn was 885,000 tons, a 92.9% decrease compared to the same period last year. The export volume of corn starch in August was 14,803.173 tons, a 7.13% decrease from the previous month and a 7996.2% increase year - on - year [5][6] - Demand: Last week, 126 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.1052 million tons of corn, an increase of 24,500 tons from the previous week [5] - Inventory: Last week, the total corn inventory in the four northern ports was 852,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 138,000 tons. The total shipment volume from the four northern ports was 581,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 110,000 tons. The domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 193,000 tons, a decrease of 22,000 tons from the previous week. As of October 15, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.199 million tons, a 0.67% increase from the previous week, a 5.27% increase from the previous month, and a 46.94% increase year - on - year [5][6] Market Analysis - Internationally, Brazil's corn production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 138.6 million tons, a decrease of 2.4913 million tons year - on - year. Domestically, new - season corn in the Northeast and North China is being concentratedly supplied to the market. The quality and yield of corn in the Northeast are good, and farmers' enthusiasm for selling grain is high, leading to a price drop. In the North China region, most of the corn is wet, with only a small amount of dried corn supplied to the market. The demand from deep - processing enterprises is stable, and feed enterprises have low inventories and increased procurement enthusiasm [6][7]