地方债周度跟踪：5000亿元结存限额下达，四季度地方债发行或继续放量-20251019

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, the central government has allocated 500 billion yuan in remaining quota to local governments, and local bond issuance may continue to increase in the fourth quarter. Compared with last year, this arrangement has increased in intensity and expanded in scope. Based on policy statements, the 500 billion yuan may be issued through both new special bonds and special refinancing bonds, and local bond issuance may continue to rise in the fourth quarter [2]. - The issuance and net financing of local bonds in the current period decreased compared to the previous period, but are expected to increase significantly in the next period. The weighted issuance term of local bonds in the current period has lengthened. As of October 17, 2025, the cumulative issuance progress of new general bonds and new special bonds is slower than in 2023 and 2024. The planned issuance scale of local bonds from October to November 2025 is 923.4 billion yuan, with new special bonds accounting for 507.3 billion yuan. Special new special bonds and special refinancing bonds for replacing implicit debts were issued in the current period, and the issuance progress of special refinancing bonds has reached 99.6%. The spread between 10Y local bonds and treasury bonds narrowed, while the spread between 30Y local bonds and treasury bonds widened, and the weekly turnover rate increased [3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 This Period's Local Bond Issuance Volume Decreased, and the Weighted Issuance Term Lengthened - The total issuance/net financing of local bonds in the current period (October 13 - October 19, 2025) was 32.301 billion yuan / -19.781 billion yuan, compared with 82.528 billion yuan / 39.784 billion yuan in the previous period. The expected issuance/net financing in the next period (October 20 - October 26, 2025) is 247.228 billion yuan / 165.751 billion yuan. The weighted issuance term of local bonds in the current period was 16.21 years, longer than the 12.93 years in the previous period [3][10]. - As of October 17, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 83.9% and 83.4% of the annual quota respectively, and is expected to be 84.1% and 86.0% considering the next - period's expected issuance. The cumulative issuance progress in 2024 was 85.1%/90.1% and 87.6%/94.6%, and in 2023 was 90.1%/87.9% and 90.1%/89.0% [3][20]. - As of October 17, 2025, 28 regions have disclosed a planned issuance scale of local bonds of 923.4 billion yuan from October to November 2025 (542.3 billion yuan in October and 381.1 billion yuan in November), with new special bonds accounting for 507.3 billion yuan (366.3 billion yuan in October and 141 billion yuan in November). The issuance in the same regions and the whole country in the same period last year was 1424.8 billion yuan and 267.5 billion yuan, and 1997.2 billion yuan and 382.8 billion yuan respectively [3][24]. - As of October 17, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds was 1206 billion yuan (3.1 billion yuan issued in the current period); the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing implicit debts was 1992.4 billion yuan (6.2 billion yuan issued in the current period), with an issuance progress of 99.6%. 32 regions including Zhejiang have completed the issuance (Hubei was added in the current period) [3]. 3.2 This Period's Spread between Local Bonds and Treasury Bonds Narrowed for 10Y and Widened for 30Y, and the Weekly Turnover Rate Increased - As of October 17, 2025, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local bonds and treasury bonds were 20.54BP and 17.98BP respectively, narrowing by 4.40BP and widening by 0.26BP compared to October 11, 2025. They were at the 58.80% and 70.20% historical quantiles since 2023 respectively [3]. - The weekly turnover rate of local bonds in the current period was 0.56%, an increase from 0.35% in the previous period. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local bonds in regions such as Dalian, Qinghai, and Ningxia were better than the national average [3].