聚烯烃周报：供需延续宽松，聚烯烃走势仍承压-20251019

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The polyolefin market is under pressure due to the continued loose supply - demand situation. PE and PP prices have weakened recently, affected by factors such as cost - end weakness, supply increases, and insufficient downstream demand [1][2][3]. - For PE, the continuous decline in its price is due to loose supply - demand fundamentals, post - holiday inventory accumulation, and weakened cost support from falling crude oil prices. Although the demand for agricultural films has improved seasonally, overall demand remains limited [2]. - For PP, the weakening of the price is dragged down by the weakening of crude oil and propane prices, and the loose supply - demand pattern also fails to support it. The supply continues to increase, while the downstream demand recovery is slow, and the inventory removal pressure is large [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Market News and Important Data - Price and Basis: The closing price of the L main contract is 6,874 yuan/ton (-55), and that of the PP main contract is 6,551 yuan/ton (-67). The LL North China spot price is 6,850 yuan/ton (-50), and the LL East China spot price is 6,950 yuan/ton (+0). The PP East China spot price is 6,570 yuan/ton (-50). The LL North China basis is -24 yuan/ton (+5), the LL East China basis is 76 yuan/ton (+55), and the PP East China basis is 19 yuan/ton (+17) [1]. - Upstream Supply: The PE operating rate is 81.8% (-2.2%), and the PP operating rate is 78.2% (+0.5%) [1]. - Production Profit: The PE oil - based production profit is 492.1 yuan/ton (-17.4), the PP oil - based production profit is -127.9 yuan/ton (-17.4), and the PDH - based PP production profit is 131.8 yuan/ton (+66.9) [1]. - Imports and Exports: The LL import profit is -150.5 yuan/ton (+14.5), the PP import profit is -523.3 yuan/ton (+14.6), and the PP export profit is 25.2 US dollars/ton (-1.8) [1]. - Downstream Demand: The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 42.9% (+7.3%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 52.2% (-0.7%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 44.3% (+0.0%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 61.2% (+0.5%) [1]. 2. Market Analysis - PE: The recent decline in PE is due to loose supply - demand, post - holiday inventory accumulation, and weakened cost support from falling crude oil prices. The supply is expected to increase, the downstream demand is limited except for the agricultural film sector, and the cost support is weakening [2]. - PP: The recent weakening of PP is dragged down by the weakening of crude oil and propane prices, and the loose supply - demand pattern. The supply continues to increase, the downstream demand recovery is slow, the inventory removal pressure is large, and the cost support is weakening [3]. 3. Strategy - Single - side: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. - Inter - period: Conduct reverse spreads for L01 - L05 and PP01 - PP05. - Inter - variety: Shrink the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [4].