丙烯周报：供需继续承压，关注PDH装置动态-20251019

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of propylene continues to increase due to the restart and capacity increase of PDH units, while the overall downstream demand has declined, and the cost side continues to drag down the propylene market. The supply - demand pattern of propylene remains loose, with insufficient upward driving force, but the downward space is also limited at the current low price level. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the impact of trade frictions on the supply of propane and the start - stop status of PDH units [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - Propylene: The closing price of the main propylene contract is 6007 yuan/ton (-99), the spot price in East China is 6165 yuan/ton (-25), and in North China is 6160 yuan/ton (-55). The basis in East China is 158 yuan/ton (+74), and in North China is 153 yuan/ton (+44). The operating rate is 74% (-1%), the spread between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR is 230 US dollars/ton (+4), the spread between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR is 139 US dollars/ton (+7), the import profit is -411 yuan/ton (-11), and the in - plant inventory is 41,490 tons (-1900) [1]. - Propylene Downstream: The operating rate of PP powder is 39% (-1.03%), with a production profit of -30 yuan/ton (+55); for propylene oxide, the operating rate is 68% (-4%), and the production profit is -51 yuan/ton (-33); for n - butanol, the operating rate is 90% (+2%), and the production profit is 19 yuan/ton (-66); for octanol, the operating rate is 92% (-4%), and the production profit is 100 yuan/ton (-3); for acrylic acid, the operating rate is 75% (-8%), and the production profit is 1173 yuan/ton (-32); for acrylonitrile, the operating rate is 79% (+0%), and the production profit is -622 yuan/ton (+52); for phenol - acetone, the operating rate is 78% (+0%), and the production profit is -625 yuan/ton (-99) [1]. 3.2 Market Analysis - Supply Side: Newly added 600,000 - ton PDH of Bohua and 650,000 - ton cracking unit of Yulong Petrochemical are shut down, the 450,000 - ton PDH of Tianhong has restarted after a short - term shutdown, and the Haiwei PDH unit is expected to restart. Coupled with the capacity increase of the restarted PDH units, the supply of propylene continues to increase [2]. - Demand Side: The overall downstream operating rate has declined. The PO and acrylic acid units have undergone centralized shutdown and maintenance, with a significant decline in operating rate. The operating rate of PP powder has decreased slightly. The downstream cost pressure is still relatively high, and the demand is mainly supported by rigidity [2]. - Cost Side: International oil prices continue to decline under the pressure of weak demand and tariff disturbances. The price of external propane has rebounded slightly but is still weak. The cost side continues to drag down the propylene market [2]. 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Adopt a wait - and - see approach; the short - term trend remains weak. - Inter - period Spread: Consider a reverse spread for PL01 - 02 when the price is high. - Inter - commodity Spread: No specific strategy is provided [3]. 3.4 Directory - related Charts - Propylene Basis Structure: Includes charts such as the closing price of the main propylene contract, East China basis, North China basis, 01 - 05 contract, market prices in East China and Shandong [6][9][11]. - Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate: Covers charts like the spread between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil refinery capacity utilization rate [15][17][25]. - Propylene Import and Export Profit: Contains charts of the spreads between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, Japan's CFR and China's CFR, Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, and propylene import profit [32][34]. - Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate: Comprises charts of the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [41][43][46]. - Propylene Inventory: Includes charts of propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [65].