黑色建材周报：铁水产量下降，矿价偏弱运行-20251019

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the iron ore industry is a weak and volatile outlook [3] Core View of the Report - Currently, the overall valuation of iron ore is relatively high, with supply being relatively loose at high prices. However, as steel mills' profits shrink, the expectation of steel mill production cuts is increasing, and there are signs of weakening future demand for iron ore. Attention should be paid to the negative impact on iron ore prices from the shipments of the Simandou project and steel mill production cuts, as well as the pressure on iron ore caused by future steel mill production cuts [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Spread - This week, iron ore prices trended weakly. As of Friday's close, the main iron ore contract 2601 closed at 771 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton week-on-week, a decline of 3.02%. The Platts 62% iron ore index was reported at $105.3/ton on Friday, down $2.1/ton week-on-week, a decline of 1.96%. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 781 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton week-on-week [1][5] Supply - According to the latest data from Mysteel, the global iron ore shipments in this period were 32.075 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 715,000 tons, with a significant decline in shipments from Australia and Brazil. The arrivals at 45 ports in this period were 30.458 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 4.371 million tons [1][8] Demand - A Mysteel survey of 247 steel mills showed that the blast furnace operating rate was 84.27%, basically flat week-on-week and up 2.59 percentage points year-on-year. The blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 90.33%, down 0.22 percentage points week-on-week and up 2.34 percentage points year-on-year. The steel mill profitability rate was 55.41%, down 0.87 percentage points week-on-week and down 19.05 percentage points year-on-year. The daily average pig iron output was 2.4095 million tons, down 5,900 tons week-on-week and up 65,900 tons year-on-year [1][10][11] Inventory - According to Mysteel statistics, the total iron ore inventory at 45 ports nationwide was 142.7827 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 2.5377 million tons. The daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports was 3.1572 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.128 million tons [2][13] Strategy - Unilateral: Weak and volatile - Inter - period: None - Inter - variety: None - Futures - spot: None - Options: None [3]