黑色建材周报：供需矛盾仍存，钢价震荡下行-20251019

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [3] 2. Core Viewpoint - There is still a contradiction between supply and demand in the steel market, and steel prices are oscillating downward. After the holiday, the demand for building materials recovered well, with a significant increase in apparent demand and better de - stocking performance. The demand for plates recovered slowly after the holiday, and there is a risk of market pressure due to continuous inventory accumulation [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis Price and Spread - As of the close this Friday, the rebar main contract 2601 closed at 3,037 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 2.13%. The hot - rolled coil main contract 2601 closed at 3,204 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 2.47% [1][5] Supply - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.27%, flat compared with last week and 2.59 percentage points higher than last year. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.33%, down 0.22 percentage points from last week and 2.34 percentage points higher than last year. The steel mill profitability rate was 55.41%, down 0.87 percentage points from last week and 19.05 percentage points lower than last year. The daily average pig iron output was 2.4095 million tons, down 0.59 million tons from last week and 6.59 million tons higher than last year [1] Consumption - This week, the supply of the five major steel products was 8.5695 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 63,600 tons, a decline of 0.7%. The output of the five major steel products decreased week - on - week, mainly because the steel mill profits shrank, and some steel mills had short - term maintenance. The total apparent demand of the five major steel products this period was 7.0778 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 860,600 tons, an increase of 12.16% [1][28] Inventory - This week, the total inventory of the five major steel products was 15.8226 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 184,600 tons, a decline of 1.2%. The total inventory of the five major products decreased week - on - week, with both factory and social inventories decreasing, and the decline mainly came from rebar [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [3]