矿石价格偏弱运行，氧化铝供给出现压减

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives an oscillating rating for alumina [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Alumina prices are running weakly, and the supply of alumina has been reduced due to factors such as limited ore supply and production plan adjustments [1][2] - The price of domestic ore has remained stable, but the supply of domestic ore is difficult to improve in the short term, and the supply of inland ore further depends on imported ore [1][11] - The spot price of alumina has declined, but the willingness of merchants to ship goods is relatively strong, and the supply of some enterprises has been reduced [2][12] - The demand for alumina at home and abroad remains unchanged, and the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has entered a stable period [12] - The inventory of alumina has increased, and the inventory has a tendency to transfer to the non - terminal circulation link [13] - The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have increased, and the futures price is expected to show an oscillating and weak trend, but the downward space is gradually being squeezed [14] Summary According to the Directory 1. Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - Raw Materials: Domestic ore prices remained stable last week, but the supply of domestic ore is facing challenges due to environmental inspections, resource integration, and rainfall. The supply of imported ore is also facing some problems, such as low downstream acceptance of the price of Guinean ore. The new arrival of ore during the period was 4.049 million tons, including 2.731 million tons from Guinea and 0.916 million tons from Australia. The reference price of Cape ships from Guinea to China remained at a relatively high level of $24.5 per ton [1][11] - Alumina: The spot price of alumina decreased last week. The supply of some enterprises in Shanxi, Henan and other places has been reduced due to limited ore supply or production plan adjustment. The national alumina production capacity is 114.62 million tons, the operating capacity is 97.15 million tons, a decrease of 1.4 million tons compared with last week, and the operating rate is 84.8%. The domestic and overseas demand for alumina has not changed, and the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has entered a stable period [2][12] - Inventory: As of October 16, the national alumina inventory was 4.017 million tons, an increase of 0.115 million tons compared with last week. The inventory has a tendency to transfer to the non - terminal circulation link [13] - Warehouse Receipts: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 221,262 tons, an increase of 45,233 tons compared with last week. The futures price is expected to show an oscillating and weak trend, but the downward space is gradually being squeezed [14] 2. Summary of Key Events and News in the Industry Chain During the Week - In September 2025, China's alumina export volume was 250,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 38.9% and a year - on - year increase of 82.2%. The cumulative export volume from January to September was 2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 61.8% [15] - On October 17, 30,000 tons of alumina were traded in Brazil at an FOB price of $323.06 per ton for the November 2025 shipment [15] - As of October 17, the price of Australian alumina decreased by $5 per ton compared with October 10. The theoretical import profit in the north decreased from $7 per ton in the previous week to - $10 per ton, and the import profit continued to narrow [15] 3. Monitoring of Key Data in the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain 3.1 Raw Materials and Cost Side - The report monitors data such as the price of domestic bauxite, the price of imported bauxite, the port inventory of domestic bauxite, the port shipping volume of major bauxite - importing countries, the floating inventory of major bauxite - importing countries, the price trend of domestic caustic soda, the price trend of domestic steam coal, and the production cost of alumina in various provinces [16][18][20] 3.2 Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance - The report monitors data such as the spot price of alumina in various provinces, the price of imported alumina, the spot price of domestic electrolytic aluminum, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum and alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the weekly supply - demand balance of domestic alumina. From June to October 2025, the supply - demand balance of alumina showed certain fluctuations, and the supply - demand gap decreased in October [33][40][41] 3.3 Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report monitors data such as the alumina inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants, the alumina inventory of alumina plants, the domestic alumina yard/platform/in - transit inventory, the alumina port inventory, the total domestic social inventory of alumina, the warehouse receipt volume and open interest of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the ratio of open interest to warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange [43][46][49]