5000亿元结存限额下达，四季度地方债发行或继续放量：地方债周度跟踪20251017-20251019

Report Information - Report Title: 500 billion yuan of carry - over quota issued, local bond issuance may continue to soar in Q4 - Local Bond Weekly Tracking 20251017 [1] - Report Date: October 19, 2025 - Analysts: Huang Weiping, Yang Xuefang [1] 1. Investment Rating of the Reported Industry No investment rating information for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The central government has allocated 500 billion yuan of carry - over quota to local governments, and local bond issuance may continue to increase in the fourth quarter. Compared with last year, this allocation has increased in scale and expanded in scope. The 500 billion yuan may be issued through both new special bonds and special refinancing bonds, and policy support will drive the growth of local bond issuance in Q4 [2]. - The current issuance progress of new bonds is slow, with the cumulative issuance progress lower than that of 2023 and 2024. The planned issuance scale of local bonds in October - November 2025 is 923.4 billion yuan, with 507.3 billion yuan for new special bonds [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 This Period's Local Bond Issuance Declined and the Weighted Issuance Term Lengthened - This period (October 13 - 19, 2025) local bonds totaled 32.301 billion yuan in issuance and - 19.781 billion yuan in net financing (last period was 82.528 billion yuan/39.784 billion yuan), and the next period (October 20 - 26, 2025) is expected to issue 247.228 billion yuan and have a net financing of 165.751 billion yuan [2][6]. - The weighted issuance term of local bonds this period was 16.21 years, longer than 12.93 years in the previous period (September 29 - October 12, 2025) [2][6][8]. - As of October 17, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 83.9% and 83.4% of the annual quota respectively. Considering the expected issuance in the next period, it will be 84.1% and 86.0%. This progress is lower than that of 2023 and 2024 [2][10][12]. - As of October 17, 2025, 28 regions have disclosed a planned issuance scale of 923.4 billion yuan for local bonds in October - November 2025 (542.3 billion yuan in October and 381.1 billion yuan in November), including 507.3 billion yuan for new special bonds (366.3 billion yuan in October and 141 billion yuan in November) [2][17][18]. - As of October 17, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds was 1206 billion yuan (3.1 billion yuan issued this period); the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 1992.4 billion yuan (6.2 billion yuan issued this period), with an issuance progress of 99.6%. 32 regions including Zhejiang have completed issuance, and Hubei was added this period [2]. 3.2 This Period's 10 - year Local Bond - Treasury Spread Narrowed, 30 - year Spread Widened, and the Weekly Turnover Rate Rose - As of October 17, 2025, the 10 - year and 30 - year local bond - treasury spreads were 20.54BP and 17.98BP respectively, narrowing by 4.40BP and widening by 0.26BP compared to October 11, 2025, and were at the 58.80% and 70.20% historical quantiles since 2023 [2][22][24]. - This period's local bond weekly turnover rate was 0.56%, up from 0.35% in the previous period [2][30]. - This period, the 7 - 10 - year local bond yields and liquidity in regions such as Dalian, Qinghai, and Ningxia were better than the national average [2].