信用周报20251019：信用再现α利差压缩行情，后续如何参与？-20251019

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Credit bonds showed a compensatory rise this week, with most yields declining and credit spreads narrowing. The market is expected to consolidate around the 1.75% level, and investors can focus on adding positions in 4 - 5y bonds with spreads above the central level [5][10]. - The marginal release of negative factors in the bond market, with the main negative disturbances being the implementation of the fund sales fee policy and potential short - term increases in risk appetite. The attractiveness of medium - and long - term bonds with wider credit spreads has increased [5][10]. - The allocation power of funds for 3 - 5y credit bonds has recovered. The 4 - 5y bonds are cost - effective, and the narrowing of spreads is expected, but it may be difficult to reach the lows of July - August [2][14]. - For bonds over 5y, although the yields are high, caution is needed as they test the stability of the liability side. Institutions with stable liability sides can capture allocation opportunities, while those with weak liability sides should participate with small positions [3][23]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Credit Strategy: 4 - 5y Bond Spreads Are Still Above the Central Level, and Positions Can Be Appropriately Added 3.1.1 Credit Bond Market Review: Yields Generally Declined, and Credit Spreads Generally Narrowed - This week, credit bonds compensated for the rise, with most yields declining and credit spreads narrowing. The capital price remained low, and the bond market was affected by various factors such as Sino - US tariff games, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and the new regulations on public fund sales fees, showing a volatile trend. Institutions had a good allocation sentiment for credit bonds, and credit performance was better than interest - rate products [9]. 3.1.2 Outlook for the Future: Negative Factors Are Marginally Released, and Attention Should Be Paid to the Opportunity to Add Positions in 4 - 5y Bonds - The 10y Treasury bond's volatility center has moved down due to tariff shocks, and the market may consolidate around 1.75%. The negative factors in the bond market are marginally released, and the main negative disturbances are the implementation of the fund sales fee policy and potential short - term increases in risk appetite. The attractiveness of 4 - 5y bonds with spreads above the central level has increased [5][10]. 3.2 Key Policies and Hot Events: The New Policy - Based Financial Instruments in This Round Have Exceeded One Billion, and the Chairman of Vanke Has Changed - The Ministry of Finance will continue to issue in advance the new local government debt quota for 2026, which can be used for project construction, resolving implicit debts, and solving government arrears to enterprises [24]. - The first - phase funds of new policy - based financial instruments in 12 provinces have exceeded 1.1 billion, with local state - owned enterprises as the main recipients, including many urban investment companies [24]. - Xin Jie resigned as the chairman of Vanke, and Huang Liping took over. Vanke's bond valuation has fluctuated recently, and attention should be paid to Shenzhen Metro's support and debt - resolution plans [25]. - The Ministry of Finance has issued a quota of 28 billion yuan for Hebei Province to replace implicit debts in 2026, which is currently awaiting allocation [25]. - Beijing has issued a plan to strengthen the role of the capital market in supporting scientific and technological innovation, including creating a "Zhongguancun Science and Technology Board" for bonds and supporting eligible projects to issue REITs [26]. 3.3 Secondary Market: Credit Bond Yields Generally Declined, and Credit Spreads Generally Narrowed - This week, credit bond yields generally declined, and credit spreads generally narrowed. For different types of bonds such as urban investment bonds, real - estate bonds, cyclical bonds, and financial bonds, most yields declined and spreads narrowed, with some individual varieties showing different trends [29]. 3.4 Primary Market: The Net Financing of Credit Bonds and Urban Investment Bonds Increased Month - on - Month - This week, the issuance of credit bonds was 418.1 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 341.9 billion yuan, and the net financing was 184.7 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 295 billion yuan. The net financing of urban investment bonds was 22 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 89.9 billion yuan [6]. 3.5 Trading Liquidity: The Trading Activity in the Inter - bank and Exchange Markets of Credit Bonds Increased - This week, the trading activity in both the inter - bank and exchange markets of credit bonds increased [6]. 3.6 Rating Adjustments: No Rating Upgrades or Downgrades This Week - There were no rating upgrades or downgrades of bond issuers this week [6].