南华期货乙二醇产业周报：内外宏观仍将主导盘面，关注支撑位卖权机会-20251019

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The fundamental supply - demand of ethylene glycol has a marginal improvement, but the valuation is under pressure due to the inventory accumulation expectation. The demand has a marginal improvement with the arrival of winter orders, but the peak - season is not prosperous. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate widely following the macro - sentiment, with the range moving down to 3850 - 4200. There may be strong supply - side support around 3700. [1] - In the short term, the unilateral price will fluctuate with the macro - situation. The port's visible inventory is at a historical low, and the supply elasticity is limited. The valuation is difficult to compress further without new downward drivers. [2] - In the long run, the supply - demand will enter an inventory accumulation channel, and the valuation will be under long - term pressure. Macro - sentiment will repeatedly dominate the commodity market, and future events may provide new price support. [5] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The fundamental supply - demand of ethylene glycol has a marginal improvement, but the valuation is under pressure. The demand has a marginal improvement, but the peak - season is not prosperous. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate widely, and there may be supply - side support around 3700. [1] - Short - term trading logic: The price will fluctuate with the macro - situation, the port inventory is low, and the supply elasticity is limited. [2] - Long - term trading expectation: Enter the inventory accumulation channel, and macro - events may provide price support. [5] 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Base - difference strategy: Consider positive arbitrage when the 11 - lower paper cargo +65 or below. [9] - Recent strategy: The EG01 put option selling strategy and the 10 - lower paper cargo cash - futures positive arbitrage strategy are being held. [12] 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - Trend judgment: Wide - range fluctuation. - Price range: EG2601 fluctuates between 3850 - 4200. - Strategy recommendations: Sell EG01 put options and call options at appropriate price ranges. [11] 1.4 Basic Data Overview - MEG key data shows changes in price, profit, inventory, and开工 rate from October 10 to October 17, 2025. [14] - Polyester key data shows changes in price, profit, inventory, and开工 rate from October 10 to October 17, 2025. [15] Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish information: The US adds port service fees to Chinese - related ships, which may increase the cost of ethane - made ethylene glycol. [17] - Bearish information: The US will impose new tariffs on Chinese - imported goods from November 1. [18] 2.2 Next Week's Important Events Attention - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, Sino - US negotiations, polyester load, terminal orders, and the implementation of plant maintenance and restart plans. [19] Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral trend: The ethylene glycol futures price has been falling, showing a strong bearish trend in the technical aspect. [20] - Capital movement: The net short - position of key seats first decreased and then increased, indicating that the main capital is cautiously bearish on the future. [23] - Month - difference structure: The near - term 11 contract maintains a premium over 01, and the structure after 01 is C, indicating that the near - term spot contradiction is not resolved. [25] - Base - difference structure: The main base - difference of ethylene glycol has strengthened slightly, and the near - term base - difference has strong support before the end of October. [28] Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Cost Tracking - The prices of upstream raw materials such as Brent crude oil, naphtha, and ethylene have changed, which affects the cost of ethylene glycol production. [32] 4.2 Upstream Industry Chain Profit Tracking - The production profits of various routes and import profits of ethylene glycol have changed, and the profitability of different varieties' switching has also changed. [39][44] 4.3 Downstream Industry Chain Profit Tracking - The profits of polyester products such as POY, FDY, DTY, short - fiber, and bottle - chip have changed, and the processing fees have been repaired. [47] Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - The supply - demand balance sheet of ethylene glycol from January 2024 to December 2025 shows changes in production, import, export, demand, and inventory. [60] 5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - The total load of ethylene glycol has increased, and the coal - made load has also increased. The profit of coal - made marginal devices is under pressure, and the port inventory is expected to maintain a tight balance. [61] 5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - The polyester load remains stable, the demand has a marginal improvement but the peak - season is not prosperous. The downstream inventory is in a dynamic balance, and the bottle - chip processing fee has been repaired. [72] Chapter 6: Industry Chain - Related Chart Appendix - The appendix provides a large number of charts related to the ethylene glycol, polyester, and terminal industries, including price, profit, load, inventory, and other aspects. [100][154][181]