纸浆产业周报：弱势维持-20251019

Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Nanhua Pulp Industry Weekly Report" dated October 19, 2025, with an investment rating of "Weak Maintenance" [1] Core Views - The domestic pulp market sentiment remains weak, with light spot transactions and prices under pressure. The market is in a pattern of "weak reality" versus "strong expectation", constrained by multiple factors [3] - High inventory and weak real - demand are the main factors suppressing pulp price increases. In the short term, the pulp market is expected to be range - bound and weak. The key turning points are effective inventory reduction and seasonal demand driving downstream restocking [3] Core Contradiction and Strategy Recommendations Core Contradiction - Fundamentally, supply pressure persists, with port inventories above 2 million tons and slow warehouse receipt digestion. The external market shows a "weak softwood, stable hardwood" situation [3] - Terminal demand is "not booming in the peak season". Downstream paper mills face high inventories and low production profits, lacking the motivation to restock significantly [3] - Near - term trading: Warehouse receipts suppress prices, and there is poor willingness to take delivery of Russian softwood pulp. High - level inventory makes de - stocking difficult [4] - Long - term trading: The impact of warehouse receipts will decline to some extent, but there will still be available warehouse receipts in 2026. Fed rate - cut expectations are strengthening, but US trade policies may bring supply pressure [4] Trading Strategy Recommendations - Market positioning: Oscillating downward. Consider selling near - month out - of - the - money call options [6] - Basis strategy: The near - month basis of Russian softwood pulp remains high. Selling the basis requires improved spot liquidity of Russian softwood pulp [7] - Spread strategy: Due to the continuous impact of warehouse receipts and high port inventories, consider a reverse spread for the 01 - 03 contracts [7] Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Inventory management: For enterprises with high softwood pulp inventories worried about price drops, short pulp futures at 25% hedging ratio in the range of 5200 - 5300 yuan/ton [8] - Procurement management: For paper - making enterprises with low inventories, buy pulp futures at 25% hedging ratio in the range of 4900 - 5000 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs [8] This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events This Week's Important Information - There is no positive information. Negative factors include high - level port inventory de - stocking difficulties, warehouse receipt pressure, weak demand, and poor downstream profitability [9][12] - Spot transaction information shows the latest prices, price changes, and price ranges of various pulp and paper products [10][11][13] Disk Interpretation Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Last week, the sp2511 contract oscillated at a low level, and the sp2601 contract had limited rebound, showing a bearish technical trend [16] Basis and Spread Structure - The spread structure maintains a C - structure. Warehouse receipts of Brazilian softwood pulp continue to suppress prices, with about 15 - 170,000 tons of warehouse receipts in the market. Consider shorting the 01 - 03 spread [19] Supply - Demand and Inventory DemandDemand and Inventory Inventory - On October 17, inventory was 2.074 million tons (- 0.3). High - level inventory is difficult to reduce. Although domestic softwood pulp imports in August were at a five - year low, the increase in global pulp shipments to China in August will pressure future de - stocking [21] - Downstream finished paper inventories are accumulating, and low profit margins restrict raw material restocking [21] Supply - Domestic production and import volume data of various types of pulp are presented, showing the production and import trends of pulp in different periods [45][46][48] Demand - Data on finished paper capacity utilization, production, export, and consumption are provided, reflecting the demand - side situation of the pulp industry [55][61][64][69] Spot - Spot prices of pulp, including domestic and international prices, and prices of finished paper products such as white cardboard, offset paper, and copperplate paper are presented [73][75][79]