成交额小幅回落,融资余额持续增长
Xiangcai Securities·2025-10-19 13:19

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the securities industry [6][8]. Core Views - The report indicates that the market turnover and margin financing balance have significantly increased in the third quarter, suggesting a rapid growth in brokerage firms' performance. The current PB valuation of brokerage firms is still below the median of the past decade, indicating potential for valuation recovery [6][8]. Summary by Sections Market Review - During the week of October 13-17, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.5%, the CSI 300 Index decreased by 2.2%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 5.7%. The non-bank financial index declined by 1.3%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.9 percentage points. The brokerage index fell by 3.1%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.9 percentage points. The brokerage index PB was 1.44x, slightly down from the previous week, and is at the 42nd percentile of the past decade [3][11]. Industry Weekly Data Brokerage Business - For the week of October 13-17, the average daily stock turnover in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 21,766 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.9% week-on-week. The turnover has significantly declined compared to previous months, with average daily turnover in July, August, and September being 16,102 billion yuan, 22,796 billion yuan, and 23,927 billion yuan respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 147%, 266%, and 249% [4][15]. Investment Banking Business - In the week of October 13-17, six companies conducted equity financing with a total scale of 9 billion yuan, a week-on-week increase of 540%. The IPOs included two companies with a total scale of 970 million yuan, a week-on-week increase of 413%. The total equity financing scale from January to October (as of October 17) increased by 298% year-on-year, with IPO financing up by 66% and refinancing up by 363% [4][21]. Capital Intermediation Business - As of October 17, the margin financing and securities lending balance reached 24,572 billion yuan, a week-on-week increase of 0.6%, accounting for 2.87% of the total market capitalization of A-shares. The financing balance increased to 24,401 billion yuan, while the securities lending balance was 171 billion yuan, up by 5.8% week-on-week [5][23]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the significant growth in market turnover and margin financing balance in the third quarter indicates a rapid growth in brokerage firms' performance. The current PB valuation of brokerage firms is still below the median of the past decade, suggesting potential for valuation recovery. The report recommends focusing on internet brokerages with strong beta attributes, such as Zhina Compass, and suggests paying attention to Jiufang Zhituo Holdings in the Hong Kong market due to its strong performance certainty amid active market trading [6][8].