南华原木产业周报：关注海运制裁影响下的远月边际利多-20251019

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The escalation of Sino - US trade frictions and shipping sanctions have a marginal bullish impact on far - month log prices. The additional port fees may lead to an increase in CFR quotes or a reduction in the number of imported ships, affecting the supply volume. In the current weak supply - demand balance, a significant supply contraction could change the supply - demand pattern. However, the implementation of port surcharges may be variable [5]. - For the far - month 01 contract, it is recommended to cautiously go long with dynamic drawdown stop - losses. The 11 contract follows the delivery logic, with low buyer acceptance, but it may rise following the far - month contract. Currently, the cost of rolling over to the far - month contract is not in the safe range [6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Sino - US trade frictions and shipping sanctions lead to an increase in import costs, with some log - importing ships being charged special port fees, adding about a dozen dollars per cubic meter to the import cost. This may either increase CFR quotes or reduce the number of imported ships, with the latter being more likely. The supply - demand pattern may change if there is a significant supply contraction. However, the implementation of port surcharges may be affected by future negotiations [5]. 1.2 Transaction - Type Strategy Recommendations - The 11 contract is expected to rebound, and the 01 contract is expected to break through upwards. It is recommended to cautiously go long on the 01 contract with dynamic drawdown stop - losses to deal with possible policy adjustments [10][11]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - For inventory management, when log imports are high and inventory is at a high level, enterprises can short log futures to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a 25% hedging ratio and an entry range of 820 - 830 [12]. - For procurement management, when the regular procurement inventory is low, enterprises can buy log futures to lock in procurement costs, with a 25% hedging ratio and an entry range of 780 - 800 [12]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish information: Seasonal decline in inventory, which is at a historical low; the start of special port fee collection is bullish for far - month prices [11][15]. - Bearish information: Low buyer acceptance in delivery and high seller delivery costs [13]. - Spot transaction information: Provided spot prices and basis data for different log specifications [16]. - Basis strategy: Industrial customers can consider buying the basis. - Spread strategy: Short the 11 - 01 spread [14]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - The 01 contract broke through upwards, with an increase of 2,800 lots in positions on Friday [17]. - In the spread structure, the deep discount pattern of near - month contracts has been somewhat repaired by the far - month bullish factors, but a spread of 30 is not considered absolutely safe [19]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Valuation - The warehouse receipt cost in the Yangtze River Delta region is around 831 yuan/cubic meter, and in Shandong region it is around 833 yuan/cubic meter. The buyer's acceptance price, calculated at a 20 - yuan discount on the spot price, is around 792 yuan/cubic meter. When the price approaches the warehouse receipt cost, it is considered overvalued [25]. 4.2 Import Profit - Import profits have been somewhat repaired. Reducing the proportion of imported materials and increasing the proportion of integrated materials can improve the import profit of the whole ship [26]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection - From October 9th to 15th, New Zealand dispatched 17 ships, 7 more than the previous period, with 15 ships expected to head to the Chinese mainland. - After the holiday, inventory is expected to fluctuate slightly and then trend towards de - stocking due to previous events. - As of October 10th, the daily average outbound volume was 57,300 cubic meters, with large fluctuations around the National Day. Overall, the demand is expected to remain relatively stable [35].