南华期货烧碱产业周报：需求预期走弱，盘面下行-20251019

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current spot market for non - aluminum products shows no obvious restocking behavior, slightly falling short of expectations. The market still anticipates a phased restocking in the non - aluminum sector, but it remains to be seen whether this expectation will be confirmed or refuted [1]. - The high - profit and high - production pattern restricts the price increase space of caustic soda. The overall contradiction is limited, but the near - term demand and restocking rhythm are below expectations. Currently, it is necessary to wait for the restocking expectation to be realized or disproven [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Near - term trading logic: The overall spot market is weak. Non - aluminum restocking is below expectations, but the market still hopes that a bottoming of the spot price will stimulate downstream purchasing [2]. - Long - term trading expectation: High profits limit the price ceiling. There is continuous medium - to - long - term production capacity expansion pressure. Disagreements exist regarding the realization degree and timing of downstream alumina production, which affects the phased restocking rhythm [3]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Market positioning: The high - profit and high - production situation restricts the price space of caustic soda. It is recommended to conduct range trading within the range of 2300 - 2600 [6]. - Basis, calendar spread, and hedging arbitrage strategy recommendations: Current short - selling orders on a single - side basis are advised to be closed, or wait for signs of the spot price bottoming. Observe whether the restocking expectation is realized, and consider building long positions at low prices [7]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Price range prediction: The predicted monthly price range for caustic soda is 2300 - 2600, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 25.19% and a historical percentile of 64.7% over three years [10]. - Risk management strategy recommendations: For inventory management, when the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, short caustic soda futures to lock in profits and sell call options to reduce costs. For procurement management, when the regular procurement inventory is low, buy caustic soda futures to lock in procurement costs and sell put options to reduce procurement costs [10]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive information: In mid - to - early October, Shandong Jinling and Lutai have maintenance plans. Observe the price - holding strength of alkali plants. Shandong has started to reduce inventory, and the national liquid caustic soda inventory is 403,300 tons, a reduction of 17,900 tons [14]. - Negative information: The non - aluminum sector has not shown concentrated restocking [14]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Monitor No relevant information provided. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Single - side trend and capital movement: This week, the main caustic soda 2601 contract showed a weakening trend, with the absolute price dropping to a relatively low level this year, mainly due to market sentiment and weak reality, as downstream phased restocking fell short of expectations [16]. - Basis and calendar spread structure: The spot price is stable. The basis of the 01 contract has repaired to near - flat. Observe whether the near - month spot price has support [20]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - The profit valuation is moderately high. This week, the price of industrial salt remained stable, while the price of liquid chlorine increased by 100 - 150 yuan. The current profit of caustic soda in Shandong is over 400 yuan per ton (including liquid chlorine) [26]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - In terms of exports, the CFR price in Southeast Asia increased by 5 US dollars to around 460 US dollars. There is an expected substitution in overseas caustic soda demand, and the sustainability of exports needs to be observed [30]. 3.5 Supply, Demand, and Inventory 3.5.1 Spot Data - Caustic soda - 32% alkali spot price: The report provides seasonal price data for 32% caustic soda in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang [33][34][35]. - Caustic soda - 50% alkali spot price: Seasonal price data for 50% caustic soda in Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shaanxi are presented [36][37][38][40]. - Flake caustic soda spot price: Seasonal price data for 99% flake caustic soda in North China, East China, and other regions are provided [41][42][45]. - Spot regional price difference: Seasonal data on the price differences between different grades and regions of caustic soda are given [48][49][50]. - Spot price converted to futures price: Seasonal data on the conversion of spot prices to futures prices for various caustic soda products are provided [58][59][60]. - Caustic soda foreign market price: Data on the FOB price in Northeast Asia, CFR price in Southeast Asia, and other foreign market prices of caustic soda are presented [77][78][79]. 3.5.2 Supply Side - Caustic soda loss volume: Seasonal data on the weekly and monthly device loss volumes of caustic soda are provided [82][83]. - Liquid caustic soda production and operation rate: Seasonal data on the weekly and monthly total production and operation rates of liquid caustic soda are presented, as well as regional production data [84][85][86]. - Flake caustic soda production and operation rate: Seasonal data on the weekly total production and operation rates of flake caustic soda are provided, along with regional production data [88][89][90]. 3.5.3 Demand Side - The report provides data on the spot price, cost, and operation rate of alumina, as well as the operation rates of industries such as propylene oxide, epichlorohydrin, and viscose staple fiber. It also includes data on the monthly import and export volumes of caustic soda and the export destination structure [93][94][96][100][101]. 3.5.4 Inventory - Liquid caustic soda inventory: Seasonal data on the weekly factory inventories of liquid caustic soda in various regions are provided [104][105][106]. - Flake caustic soda inventory: Seasonal data on the weekly factory inventories and total industry inventories of flake caustic soda are presented, along with regional inventory data [118].