反弹可能进入下半场

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The weekly technical analysis of Treasury bond futures shows that the rebound is ongoing, and any adjustment is still an opportunity to participate. The rebound of T and TL may continue. Observing TL2512, it may currently be in the third wave of the rebound. There may be an adjustment next week, with the extreme downside position to watch around 114.8 - 114.9. After the decline, there may still be a fifth - wave upward movement, with the final target temporarily set above 116 and near the 60 - day moving average [2]. - The Treasury bond futures data tracking indicates that all contracts have risen, and it is advisable to seize the opportunity to participate in the cash - and - carry strategy [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Technical Analysis 1.1 Pre - trend Review - This week, T2512 fell on Monday, turned strongly upward after hitting the bottom on Tuesday, then oscillated strongly, and reached a short - term high on Friday. The Treasury bond futures briefly declined at the beginning of the week and then continued to rebound. Currently, the weekly line is close to the MA20 moving average, and the daily line is above the moving average system. The rebound that started on September 25 may still be ongoing [9]. 1.2 Future Market Outlook - TL2512 showed significantly increased elasticity on Thursday and Friday this week. There may be an adjustment next week, with the extreme downside position to watch around 114.8 - 114.9. After that, there may be a fifth - wave upward movement, and the overall rebound target is above 116 and near the 60 - day moving average. From the perspective of the TL2512 trend, it may currently be in the third wave of the rebound. Next week, there may be a fourth - wave adjustment, and the extreme downside position to watch is around the high point of the first wave at 114.8 - 114.9. If it is supported at this level, it may continue to rebound in the fifth wave [10]. 2. Weekly Tracking of Treasury Bond Futures - All Treasury bond futures contracts rose this week. As of the close on October 17, the closing prices of the 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures 2512 contracts were 102.378, 105.780, 108.295, and 115.87 yuan respectively, up 0.024, 0.130, 0.315, and 1.90 yuan from the previous week [16]. - The trading activity of Treasury bond futures increased overall this week. The average daily trading volume of the 2512 contracts of Treasury bond futures of each maturity increased overall compared with last week, except for TS. In terms of the trading volume/holding volume ratio, all increased except for TS. As of October 17, the holding volume of the 2512 contracts of Treasury bond futures increased across the board [16]. - As of October 17, the CTD net basis of the 2512 contracts of Treasury bond futures of each maturity declined across the board, with the CTD net basis of the 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year 2512 contracts being - 0.03, - 0.05, - 0.05, and - 0.07 yuan respectively. In terms of IRR, the IRR corresponding to the CTD of the 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year 2512 contracts were 1.56%, 1.71%, 1.72%, and 1.72% respectively, all of which increased. Currently, the IRR level is significantly higher than the funding rate, and overall, the value of participating in the cash - and - carry strategy has recovered, and one can seize the opportunity to participate. The spread performance of the 2512 - 2603 contracts was divergent this week, with the spreads of the 2 - year and 10 - year contracts rebounding and the spreads of the 5 - year and 30 - year contracts falling [21].