Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - This week, tin prices maintained a narrow - range oscillation after a pull - back from the high. The Fed officials sent dovish signals, slightly strengthening the expectation of interest rate cuts again. The gold price remained high, and market sentiment was still pessimistic. The supply side faced significant pressure due to continuous disruptions in domestic and overseas mines and ongoing maintenance of some domestic smelters. Demand in traditional consumer electronics and home appliances was weak, and the increase in emerging fields was uncertain. Overall, it was in a situation of weak supply and demand. Affected by macro - upward drivers and a large proportion of mine - end disturbances, tin is still regarded as a long - position asset. In the short term, enter the market on dips [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Tin prices oscillated narrowly after a pull - back from the high. Macro factors included dovish Fed signals and strengthened interest - rate cut expectations, with high gold prices and pessimistic market sentiment. On the fundamental side, there were continuous disturbances in mines at home and abroad and maintenance of some domestic smelters, leading to supply - side pressure. Demand in traditional sectors was weak, and the increase in emerging fields was uncertain. Tin is considered a long - position asset, and short - term dip - buying is recommended [2] 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Price Volatility and Forecast: The latest closing price of Shanghai tin is 280,750 yuan/ton, the monthly price range forecast is 265,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton, the current volatility is 19.31%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 49.6% [18] - Risk Management Strategies: For inventory management with high finished - product inventory and fear of price drops, sell 75% of Shanghai tin's main futures contract at around 288,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of call options (SN2511C290000) when volatility is appropriate. For raw - material management with low raw - material inventory and fear of price increases, buy 50% of Shanghai tin's main futures contract at around 277,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of put options (SN2511P270000) when volatility is appropriate [21] - Import Profit and Loss and Processing Fees: The tin import profit and loss is - 14,530.35 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of 4,721.03 yuan and a weekly decline of 24.52%. The 40% tin ore processing fee is 12,200 yuan/ton with no change, and the 60% tin ore processing fee is 10,050 yuan/ton with no change [21] Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive Information: The US government shutdown has lasted for over half a month. On October 16, the US Senate's tenth vote on the temporary appropriation bill still failed to pass, and there is no sign of the shutdown ending in the short term [22] - Negative Information: Alphamin Resources increased its annual tin production forecast to 18,000 - 18,500 tons, with a 26.4% increase in the third - quarter output compared to the previous quarter and a 5.6% increase compared to the same period last year. The Indonesian president transferred six seized tin smelters to a state - owned enterprise. Cornish Metals plans to produce 49,000 tons of tin, 3,800 tons of copper, and 3,200 tons of zinc annually, with production expected to start in mid - 2028. Nathan Trotter started the construction of a secondary tin smelter in the US with an investment of $65 million [23][24][25] - Spot Transaction Information: The Shanghai Non - Ferrous tin ingot price is 281,000 yuan/ton, down 2.23% week - on - week. The 1 tin premium is 400 yuan/ton, up 60% week - on - week. The 40% tin concentrate price is 269,000 yuan/ton, down 2.32% week - on - week, and the 60% tin concentrate price is 273,000 yuan/ton, down 2.29% week - on - week. The prices of 60A and 63A solder bars also decreased [24] 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - China's Q3 GDP annual rate and the US September unadjusted CPI annual rate will be announced [27] Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Futures Price and Change: The latest price of the Shanghai tin main contract is 280,750 yuan/ton, down 1.96% week - on - week; the Shanghai tin continuous - one contract is 281,180 yuan/ton, down 1.81% week - on - week; the Shanghai tin continuous - three contract is 281,350 yuan/ton, down 1.81% week - on - week; the LME tin 3M is $35,030/ton, down 0.91% week - on - week; the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.87, up 1.94% week - on - week [27] - Inventory and Change: The Shanghai tin warehouse receipts total 5,652 tons, down 2.7% week - on - week; the Shanghai tin inventory is 5,879 tons, down 8.55% week - on - week; the LME tin registered warehouse receipts are 2,505 tons, up 15.44% week - on - week; the LME tin cancelled warehouse receipts are 230 tons, down 4.17% week - on - week; the LME tin inventory is 2,575 tons, up 7.74% week - on - week; the social inventory is 9,644 tons, down 1.13% week - on - week [28] - Domestic Market: Tin prices oscillated narrowly this week, closing at 280,700 yuan/ton. Profitable positions were mainly long in net positions. The domestic basis and monthly - spread structure were stable, and the Shanghai tin term structure maintained a C - structure. The LME tin term structure maintained a B - structure, and the forward trading volume was small. The domestic - foreign spread was stable and oscillated narrowly [29][31][35] Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - Yunnan's tin ore processing fees have been hovering at historical lows, suppressing smelters' profits and production willingness [38] 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - No specific profit - tracking content is summarized, mainly presenting import volume seasonal charts of Chinese tin ore and unforged non - alloy tin [40][41] Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Side and Deduction - Mine - end disturbances and smelter losses have brought significant pressure to the supply side [42] 5.2 Demand - Side and Deduction - No specific demand - side deduction content is summarized, mainly presenting seasonal charts of China's refined tin production, domestic recycled refined tin monthly production, SMM tin solder enterprise monthly starting rate, and tin ingot monthly apparent consumption [48][49]
南华期货锡产业周报：窄幅震荡，短期等待入场机会-20251019
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-10-19 13:41