转债市场周报：红利品种短期占优-20251019

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the equity market fluctuated and declined, with the market style shifting from growth sectors such as technology to low - valuation defensive sectors like banks and coal. The TMT and robotics sectors, which had significant previous gains, led the decline. The bond market strengthened, and the stock - bond seesaw effect was evident. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield closed at 1.82% on Friday, down 2.14bp from the previous week. Most convertible bonds ended lower, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index down 2.35% for the week, the median price down 1.95%, and the arithmetic average parity down 4.62%. The overall market conversion premium rate increased by 1.90% compared to the previous week [1][7][8]. - In the short term, coal, banks, and power and other dividend - paying sectors are recommended. The dividend yield of the dividend - paying sectors has significantly rebounded from the high in July. Considering the year - end layout of bank mid - term dividends (in January) by absolute - return funds such as insurance, the dividend - paying sectors are relatively dominant. Before the year - end important meetings, the market may start to bet on pro - growth policies, and pro - cyclical sectors such as banks are expected to benefit. For the subsequent market rebound, transformers, copper connections, pesticides, lithium batteries, and small household appliances with good performance are recommended [2][19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Trends (2025/10/13 - 2025/10/17) Stock Market - The equity market fluctuated and declined. The market style shifted from growth sectors to low - valuation defensive sectors. The TMT and robotics sectors led the decline. Throughout the week, the performance of A - share indexes varied daily, with different sector performances. Most Shenwan primary industries ended lower, with banks (4.89%), coal (4.17%), food and beverage (0.86%), transportation (0.37%), and textile and apparel (- 0.31%) performing well, while electronics (- 7.14%), media (- 6.27%), automobiles (- 5.99%), and communications (- 5.92%) performed poorly [7][8]. Bond Market - The bond market strengthened. Affected by the tense Sino - US trade situation, market risk - aversion sentiment increased. With the significant correction in the equity market, the stock - bond seesaw effect was obvious. Coupled with loose liquidity and economic data generally in line with expectations, bond market sentiment was strong. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield closed at 1.82% on Friday, down 2.14bp from the previous week [1][7][8]. Convertible Bond Market - Most convertible bond issues ended lower. The CSI Convertible Bond Index was down 2.35% for the week, the median price was down 1.95%, and the arithmetic average parity was down 4.62%. The overall market conversion premium rate increased by 1.90% compared to the previous week. The arithmetic average conversion premium rates of convertible bonds in the parity ranges of [90,100), [100,110), and [110,120) changed by + 0.34%, - 3.24%, and - 0.18% respectively, at the 84%, 88%, and 84% percentile values since 2023. Most industries in the convertible bond market ended lower, with banks (+ 0.85%), coal (- 0.20%), food and beverage (- 0.52%), and environmental protection (- 0.78%) performing well, while automobiles (- 5.78%), electronics (- 5.45%), non - ferrous metals (- 4.89%), and communications (- 4.77%) performing poorly. The total trading volume of the convertible bond market last week was 344.218 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 68.844 billion yuan, a decrease from the previous week [1][8][12]. - At the individual bond level, Huicheng (waste catalyst treatment), Tongguang (optical fiber and cable), Liugong Zhuan 2 (construction machinery), Yuguang (precious metals), and Yanpai (industrial filtering devices) convertible bonds led the gains; Xin 23 (robotics), Zhenhua (solid - state batteries), Jingda (controllable nuclear fusion concept), Zhonghuan Zhuan 2 (innovative drugs & change of actual controller), and Huicheng (display driver packaging and testing) convertible bonds led the losses [1][13]. Valuation Overview - As of October 17, 2025, for equity - biased convertible bonds, the average conversion premium rates of convertible bonds in the parity ranges of 80 - 90 yuan, 90 - 100 yuan, 100 - 110 yuan, 110 - 120 yuan, 120 - 130 yuan, and above 130 yuan were 44.07%, 32.51%, 25.47%, 18.51%, 10.95%, and 10.08% respectively, at the 93%/88%, 90%/85%, 90%/89%, 87%/82%, 71%/56%, and 88%/77% percentile values since 2010/2021. - For bond - biased convertible bonds, the average YTM of convertible bonds with a parity below 70 yuan was - 4.09%, at the 1%/2% percentile values since 2010/2021. - The average implied volatility of all convertible bonds was 40.06%, at the 77%/65% percentile values since 2010/2021. The difference between the implied volatility of convertible bonds and the long - term actual volatility of the underlying stocks was - 2.64%, at the 67%/68% percentile values since 2010/2021 [20]. Primary Market Tracking Last Week (2025/10/13 - 2025/10/17) - Jinlang Zhuan 02 announced its issuance, and no convertible bonds were listed. Jinlang Technology, the underlying stock of Jinlang Zhuan 02, is a high - tech enterprise in the new energy industry. The company's 2024 revenue was 6.542 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.23%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 691 million yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.32%. From Q1 - Q3 2025, the company's revenue was 5.663 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9.71%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 865 million yuan, a year - on - year increase of 29.39%. The scale of the convertible bond issuance is 1.677 billion yuan, with a credit rating of AA, and it was announced for issuance on October 15. After deducting the issuance fees, the funds are planned to be invested in distributed photovoltaic power station projects, high - voltage and high - power grid - connected inverter new construction projects, medium - and high - power hybrid energy - storage inverter new construction projects, Shanghai R & D center construction projects, digital intelligence improvement projects, and working capital supplementation projects [28]. - Two companies, Tianzhun Technology and Xingyuan Zhuomei, were newly approved for registration, four companies including Yuhetian, Aiwei Electronics, Shenneng Co., Ltd., and Tonglian Precision were accepted by the exchange, one company, Haitian Co., Ltd., passed the shareholders' meeting, and three companies, Zhongqi Co., Ltd., Mankun Technology, and Huatong Cable, had board proposals. No companies passed the listing committee [30]. Future Week (2025/10/20 - 2025/10/24) - There are no announcements of convertible bond issuances, and Yingliu Convertible Bonds are expected to be listed. Yingliu Co., Ltd., the underlying stock of Yingliu Convertible Bonds, is an international well - known high - end equipment key parts manufacturing enterprise. The company's 2024 revenue was 2.513 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.21%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 286 million yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 5.57%. In H1 2025, the company's revenue was 1.384 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9.11%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 188 million yuan, a year - on - year increase of 23.91%. The scale of the convertible bond issuance is 1.5 billion yuan, with a credit rating of AA +, and it is planned to be listed on October 22. After deducting the issuance fees, the funds are planned to be invested in blade gate processing coating projects, advanced nuclear energy materials and key parts intelligent upgrade projects, and working capital supplementation and bank loan repayment [29]. - As of now, there are 92 convertible bonds waiting to be issued, with a total scale of 138.26 billion yuan, including 3 approved for registration with a total scale of 2.32 billion yuan and 6 approved by the listing committee with a total scale of 3.98 billion yuan [30].