宏观周：南华期货甲醇产业周报-20251019

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the methanol market was extreme, with the main trading point being the docking issue of sanctioned vessels. Although the docking issue may be resolved, it will affect the unloading rhythm and vessel return time. Iran is currently maintaining a high shipping volume, but vessel sanctions have slowed down port inventory accumulation, leading to an increase in the 15 positive spread and basis. The bullish view that sanctions will force early gas restrictions and shutdowns in Iran has not been confirmed. Due to unloading impacts, port inventory accumulation has become smoother, and the October inventory target has been lowered. The fundamental price range for methanol is expected to be between 2,250 and 2,350 yuan/ton [3]. - The near - term trading focus is on Sino - US negotiations. In October, Iran's shipments remained high, but due to Iranian sanctions, some ports prohibited vessel docking, causing the methanol basis to turn positive. The long - term debate centers on how to reduce port inventory. Currently, the inventory problem for the 2601 contract cannot be solved, and the 2605 contract is expected to be stronger than the 2601, leading to a reverse spread for the 15 spread, with the process being affected by macro sentiment [10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The methanol market this week was characterized by extreme fluctuations, mainly due to the docking issue of sanctioned vessels. The problem is likely to be resolved, but it will impact the unloading rhythm and vessel return time. Iran is maintaining a high shipping volume, with about 640,000 tons shipped so far in October. Vessel sanctions have slowed port inventory accumulation, causing the 15 positive spread and basis to rise. The bullish view that sanctions will lead to early gas restrictions and plant shutdowns in Iran has not been verified. Port inventory accumulation has become smoother, and the October inventory target has been lowered. The fundamental price range for methanol is 2,250 - 2,350 yuan/ton. Next week is a macro - event - filled week, including a new round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations and the 4th Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee [3]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - Base - spread Strategy: This week, the price of the methanol 01 contract was 2,282 yuan/ton. For inland external procurement, the 01 base - spread strengthened [13]. - Month - spread Strategy: With the continuous acceleration of Iranian shipments (reaching 640,000 tons), the market has little expectation for early gas restrictions this year. However, due to Iranian sanctions, port docking is prohibited, causing the methanol basis to turn positive and the 15 spread to move towards a positive spread [13]. - Trend Judgment: Methanol is expected to trade in a short - term range. The short - term operating range for the 2601 contract is 2,250 - 2,350 yuan/ton. It is recommended to continue holding the previously sold put options on the 2601 contract [14]. 3.1.3 Methanol Inland Inventory Situation No specific written analysis is provided in the text, but there are multiple inventory - related charts, including methanol weekly inventory seasonality in the Northwest, methanol plant inventories in the South and North lines, and China's methanol enterprise weekly pending order volume seasonality [24][26][29]. 3.1.4 Methanol Port Inventory Situation No specific written analysis is provided in the text, but there are many port - inventory - related charts, such as China's methanol port weekly inventory seasonality, provincial - level methanol port weekly inventory seasonality, and methanol downstream inventory in the East China region [34][36][46]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Price Range Forecast: The price range forecast for methanol is 2,200 - 2,500 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.01% and a historical percentile of 51.2% over three years. For polypropylene and plastic, the price range is 6,800 - 7,400 yuan/ton, with volatilities of 10.56% and 15.24% and historical percentiles of 42.2% and 78.5% respectively [55]. - Hedging Strategy Table: Different hedging strategies are proposed for inventory management and procurement management based on different scenarios, including shorting or going long in methanol futures, buying or selling put and call options [55]. - Positive Information: Sanctions have prevented some methanol vessels from docking and unloading, such as Yanghong not accepting sanctioned vessels. Importers' replenishment has slightly strengthened the basis. The 450,000 - ton MTO unit of Lianhong Phase II is expected to start feeding as early as the end of November [56][57]. - Negative Information: Iran shipped 1.06 million tons in September and 640,000 tons so far in October [57]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch On the morning of October 18th, Chinese and US economic and trade leaders held a video call, agreeing to hold a new round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations as soon as possible [58]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Fund Interpretation - In the domestic market, the production areas performed weaker than the consumption areas. Although traders actively purchased at the beginning of the week due to the disk rally, the lack of external procurement news from northwest olefin plants and the active price - cutting by methanol plants in the production areas to maintain low inventories led to a decline in methanol prices in the production areas. Downstream users' price - pressing purchases also caused the market in the consumption areas to decline [59]. - This week, the 1 - 5 month spread strengthened, mainly due to sanctions on Iran [61]. 3.4 Price and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Price Tracking in the Industry Chain The text provides price data for various products in the methanol industry chain, including domestic and international market prices of methanol, downstream product prices, and prices of related raw materials such as coal [5][7]. 3.4.2 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain The text shows the production costs and profit seasonality of different methanol production methods, such as coal - based production in Inner Mongolia and Shandong, natural - gas - based production in the Southwest, and coke - oven - gas - based production [79][83][84]. 3.4.3 Upstream and Downstream Production and Output Tracking in the Industry Chain The text presents the weekly operating rates and production seasonality of different methanol production methods and downstream products, including coal - single - alcohol, coal - combined - alcohol, coke - oven - gas - based methanol, and MTO units [86][89][94]. 3.4.4 Import and Export Price and Profit Tracking The text includes information on the import volume seasonality of methanol from different countries, the external market structure of methanol, and the import profit seasonality of Iranian methanol [120][121]. 3.4.5 Overseas Operating Rate Tracking The text provides data on the weekly capacity utilization rate seasonality of foreign methanol production, the operating rates of Iranian and non - Iranian methanol plants, and their weekly production [124][126][128]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection The text provides a supply - demand balance sheet projection for methanol from January to December 2025, including production, consumption, inventory, and inventory changes [131]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Projection This week, in domestic methanol plants, Jinneng Huayu in North China started to increase the load of a furnace after shutting it down on October 9th. In Central China, the market was mainly affected by the resumption of the Henan Hebi plant. In Northwest China, there were both restarts and overhauls of plants, including the restart of the Xilaifeng plant and the load increase of Shaanxi Runzhong, while plants such as Zhongmei Yuanxing, Yulin Kaiyue, Inner Mongolia Donghua, and Ningxia Hening were shut down for maintenance [132]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Projection - Downstream MTO units: Xingxing returned on September 12th, and Chengzhi increased its load at the beginning of September. - New demand projects: The MTO unit of Lianhong Phase II was planned to be handed over on September 26th, earlier than expected, and has started stockpiling. - Iran maintains a high shipping volume [136].